KingDom

My Election Posting

2007-11-23T18:34:00.000+09:00

It's a tradition at the KingDom that I post my election musings.

To be honest I'm a bit apathetic about the whole thing (for the first time in a long time) as the two major parties are identical.

Let's survey the field:

1) Industrial relations - The Coalition watered down policy (read: fairness test) makes their policy pretty much identical to the Labor party. No difference here - heck if anything the Coalition's policy is weaker for employers yet there is no way that either side wants you to believe that.

2) The Economy - Everybody is a fiscal conservative these days. Labor wouldn't dare run deficit budgets (not that economically they are necessarily a bad thing - it just depends what you are using them for!). As I posted at the time of the last election the whole interest rate thing is much ado about nothing and it continues to be such. Howard's overemphasised unprovable assertion (I think that's what I called it in 2004) comes back to haunt him this time around.

3) Health - Both sides equally boring. At least this time Labor is not touting that the tax-payer is going to pay for private health insurance for everybody over 65. The worst policy ever and the reason they deserved to lose that last election.

4) Education - Both sides equally boring, although I do know of some in the higher education sector who fear a Labor government (those old enough to remember Dawkins anyway).

5) The War - Both sides get it. Labor pretends that they are enti-war but the truth is their policy amounts to withdrawing combat troops from Iraq (where they are not actually performing any combat at the moment) and redeploying them to Afghanistan where they may well actually be in combat. Their policy also involves leaving the vast bulk of our forces in Iraq and if anything increasing the deployment in the middle east theatre. That's not anti-war by my books and I can support them on this (p.s. I laugh at the left who fall for Labor's rhetoric).

Now I'm a one issue voter: The War - do they get it? Both sides do (at least I believe Rudd does, though I'm not necessarily convinced all of his more junior colleagues do). So who do I vote for?

Well I live in a safe Liberal seat (62% two party preferred last time) so my vote doesn't really matter. The only vote I have that matters is my Senate vote. This reminds me, I must look up the senate preference deals to work out how to minimise the greens chances of getting the 6th WA senate seat (though sadly it's normal for them to pick it up so even that will be in vain).

So if I can't personally make a difference then who do I want to win?

Well last time the choice was easy. Only die-hards and the weak-minded wanted Latham to win. Dumping Beazley was a Labor disaster then, this time dumping Beazley won't be. This time Rudd offers a reasonable alternative (heck I advocated on this blog a Rudd-Gillard team years before it ever happened).

While my personal choice for years (as I've said many times on this blog) has always been Costello, I think sadly it may be one of the great tragedies in life that he never leads this nation. The alternative is acceptable. Rudd is a Tony Blair like figure and I am optimistic about the future under either scenario.

Predictions:
Coalition wins and John Howard loses his seat (nah that's just me dreaming again).

The betting markets predict Labor has a 78% chance of winning. Hard to argue with the market.

Conservative Values

2007-08-21T12:02:00.000+08:00

Now I'm in a quandary.

Obviously Rudd has a hard time arguing now that he is a social conservative. Fiscal conservative is still a less problematic argument to make - after all who isn't fiscally responsible these days.

Just a week ago I was utterly convinced Labor would win the next election. Now I receive the inside word from people in the know that Howard is going to win the next election and hand over to Costello before his term is out.

Hmmm. Altogether too confusing.

Trust the polls or trust my normally highly reliable source?

Election Musings

2007-08-16T12:26:00.000+08:00

Australian Election
I think what finally persuaded me that Labor will win was my daily reading of news.com.au.
It's amazing how every headline is spun in a negative way for the government at an organisation owned by News Corp. I do appreciate it's not an anti-coalition thing, personally I think they are just populist. The writing is on the wall for the coalition. The website tries to spin controversy with every byline and the government of the day suffers. If Labor were in power news.com.au would spin it against Labor.

Fortunately I think Rudd is not the person he pretends to be. I think he's actually quite conservative, and expect once in power we'll see the true Kevin, who won't be half as bad as the government make out.

US Election
I'm convinced now Hillary has the Democratic nomination sewn up. Obama's coming off looking like a clown, Edwards and Gore are too far behind.
The Republican nomination I believe is between Romney and Rudy. McCain has no chance, Thompson could catch fire, but I'd be surprised if he does. Very hard call between Romney and Rudy at this time as to who will be the candidate.

Surprisingly enough I'm not convinced the Democrats are going to win (even though the markets are fairly sure they will). I think the Republicans have a chance at the Presidency, but they are likely to remain minorities in both the House and the Senate.

Best Story EVER

2007-08-02T12:55:00.000+08:00

Heard on NPR Technology Podcast last week.

Sprint (US Tech Company) apparently sent letters out to some customers advising them that Sprint was not meeting their needs, so they should look elsewhere. They worked this out by the number of times these people were calling their helpline. People that used the helpline too often obviously were not getting a good service. Heh.

Then this example - which I consider a classic.

One of the big brand name computer companies had a 96 year old customer who would ring their helpline about issues with his computer for up to 3 hours at a time.

They had one of their employees order a brand new computer from a competitor, then paid for it to be shipped to the old guy. They then rang him and said look here is a new computer for you, oh and by the way here is your new 1800 help number to ring if you have any trouble...

Complaint Received, Noted.

2007-08-02T12:49:00.000+08:00

Today I received the following email:

Dear DOMITAR,

I just want to ask could you change the lecture notes first slide to black and white colors? Because when I print it out it uses too much ink. So, if it doesn't make too much trouble for you, please help us to change it.

Yes it does make trouble for me - stylistic trouble. I've used the same title page for my lectures for 6 years. Why? Because I like it. Has anyone ever complained? No.

My immediate reaction is to colourise all my slides and not just the title page.

Dom

Democratic Debates

2007-07-25T16:04:00.000+08:00

I listened to the Youtube CNN Democratic party debates.

Dom's summary:

Most of the questions were posted by foolish plebians. You are not prepared!

Hillary's wise enough to smack Obama down when he leaves an opening and Obama comes off as someone out of his depth.

The rest of the candidates don't matter. *snore*

If Hillary wins the nomination she'll be a formidable candidate. If Obama wins the nomination I think the Republicans will eat him alive. A risky combination of inexperience and straying too close to the fringe elements to not be an easy target. That's the point of these debates - to see who can stand up to the heat of the real contest next yet. Hillary's doing a better job.

On the Republican side I think it's a 2 horse race. Rudy and Mitt. Many people have their hopes on Fred, but I think Newt would be a better choice.

If Rudy wins the nomination I think he'll win the lot. If Mitt wins then I think it's an open question. Either would be a good candidate.

Still early days though. Even still I'm prepared to narrow it down to just 4 people at this point.

Predictions

2007-05-29T19:07:00.000+08:00

Because they are fun to look back on and see how wrong we were. Plus if you don't put it in writing then there's no proof of your prophetic ability.

Prediction 1: Good odds for Mitt Romney. Currently 13 to 1. If I was a betting man I'd take those odds. Note I'm not saying he actually will win: just that I think the odds of him winning are far stronger than 13 to 1.

Prediction 2: Australian version. Real hard call this. The polls show a landslide to Labor. The betting market has Labor as the firm favourite. Yet over here in the West I don't detect a strong swing (except from blue collar union workers who are really riled up at the moment - but that's more of reinforcement than a swing). Maybe if I lived in S.A., Qld or the western suburbs of Sydney I'd notice change more.

Judgment: Too close to call.

Who do I want to win?

I remain a loyal member of the Howard opposing Costello caucus, and over the years I've grown too really like Alexander Downer.

On the other side I think I'm beginning to prefer Kevin to Julia.

But I haven't seen either sides policies yet, so anyone who's already made up their mind I question their sanity. Last election I voted against Medicare gold - right up amongst the worst policies I've ever seen.

This time Labor has promised to spend less than the Coalition. Good start. There's always a chance they will have some grand paternal scheme, but I suspect Kevin isn't going to do anything stupid.

Where have we been...

2007-05-29T19:03:00.000+08:00

Gruul down, Maulgar down, Karazhan farmed & Serpentshrine attuned.

With everything now on farm blogging will resume.

Nintendo Wii

2007-01-11T12:32:00.000+09:00

A slow day in the KingDom - crunching numbers and formatting some reports.

Slow was not however how my day started. Today started with a bang at exactly 8:30am when Target opened. Each store in Perth got in 10 Nintendo Wii's today. There were 30 people pressed up against the door waiting for them to open at the one I went to - although I didn't realise at the time they were all there for the same thing.

I imagined I was going to briskly stroll to the electronics section and buy one with my dignity intact. However all thoughts of that ended when the doors opened and the mad sprint began.

Once I got sucked in to the sprinting race I quickly decided "Heck I'm already embarrassing myself - there is now NO way I'm doing this for nothing." I somewhat recklessly put on a burst of speed at that moment. There was no way those ladies, those grandparents and those 15 year olds are going to beat me.

Fortunately I knew a good route to the electronics section and managed to get there with only a bruised knee from weaving between clothing racks. I'm not quite sure how it was that I didn't knock any over - I was the only thing that fell to the ground.

Once we got to the electronic section people began madly looking around for boxes of Wii's. Queen Dom had advised me that there was no way they'd be stacking them up for people to madly grab. Her advice proved correct and going immediately to the counter and asking for one was the smart move. I lined up third at the counter and actually felt good about handing over $400. It's amazing what a little competition can do.

Blog More

2007-01-08T12:12:00.000+09:00

Well I've been enjoying a summer break so I'll ramble a bit on unrelated topics here as a catchup.

On the DVD I watched Season 5 of 24. Most predictable line of the series "Jack your daughter has called on the LANDLINE it is just inside (this abandoned building)". Gee that mega-surprise ambush wasn't predictable. The moment they used the word LANDLINE in a show which has people on mobile phones for at least 15 minutes an episode stood out like a flashing red light. They use mobiles so much I've often wondered if the agents on these shows would be able to in later life sue their governments for mobile phone radiation damage to their brains.

Next on my list to watch is Battlestar Galactica Season 3. Great show. Looking forward to it.

I bought my wife the complete works of Shakespeare for Christmas. Many songs and plays in there that I have never read and I'm looking forward to it myself. People forget Shakespeare was a popular writer. He wrote not for scholars but for the common man. Everyone can enjoy his work. The best advice I received though was to read it aloud - his plays were meant to be heard by the ear.

We bought our daughters a kitchen set which unfortunately you had to assemble. It took six hours to assemble it piece by tiny piece. Six hours. Six long hours.

I'm considering buying a Nintendo Wii (should they ever become available again).

"You should blog more" - that's the message from my friends at a recent BBQ over the festive season. Perhaps I should.

Well for openers here is a list of names for the next US president.

Clinton / Obama / Edwards / Gore
McCain / Giuliani / Romney

Get used to hearing those names.

It's a long way out but it's hard to imagine Clinton not getting the Democratic nomination at this point. Obama's inexperienced, Hillary is loaded with money and Edwards (from my observation of 2004) isn't a great debater. Gore has already had a turn.

The Republican candidates all have problems so I'm less certain about which it will be, although I am fairly certain it will be limited to these three candidates. McCain is getting old, Giuliani is too liberal for many conservative voters, and while Romney is the best conservative in the field he's also a Mormon which many conservatives will find hard to accept.

For a long time I've said Hillary would win the nomination but lose the election. Now I'm beginning to have second thoughts. None of the three viable Republican candidates can unite the conservative voters behind them. In the US turnout is everything. So while Hillary is likely to increase conservative turnout (due to their widespread despisal of her) I'm guessing this will be offset by the problems with the Republican candidates turning off their own base.

The wildcard in the mix is President Bush. Is he really going to let Iran go nuclear in the next two years and kick the problem down the line to the next administration? I hope not, but whether he still has the ability or the stomach to do anything about it is yet to be seen.

Perhaps this will become the defining question of the age. Turbulent times ahead - the impacts of which at this point cannot be known.

Lessons learned

2006-12-15T13:43:00.000+09:00

Last Friday as I was making the 230KM drive back to Perth I stopped at Bunbury for some lunch and a refill of petrol. The petrol station at the main shopping centre complex was reasonably priced but absolutely chaotic. All the bays were full and I had to wait in one of them but which one?

Option A: Grandpa filling up an old Holden (looked to my untrained eye like a 60's car). Definitely a V8.

Option B: Young guy filling up a tiny Ford Festiva.

No brainer. I pull in behind the young guy.

Sure enough a few minutes later the young guy finishes filling his car and I smugly look over at the person waiting behind the Holden to my left. Yep, pays to have brains around here I thought. It's getting hot waiting out here in the sun and I'm keen to get moving.

Then the unexpected. The Festiva owner proceeds to open the hatchback and pull out 4 giant drums out of his tiny boot. My jaw drops and I scramble to find my keys, turning around in horror to see that I am hemmed in by about 7 cars behind me.

I scream but no-one hears and no-one cares.

15 minutes later when the Festiva drives off I remember that it's dangerous to go with conventional wisdom.

Tzarkoth posted in comments yesterday:

Jonny will win again, hand over to Costello and then they will lose.

This is conventional wisdom - but I'm not conventional anymore and the longer time goes on the more unlikely I think this scenario will be. Don't write off Malcom Turnball just yet.

Looking Back, Looking Forward

2006-12-11T13:31:00.000+09:00

Two years ago (Thursday, October 07, 2004) I wrote on this blog:

Been listening to Philip Adams tonight. He's actually conducted a reasonable and relatively unbiased interview. Quite impressive really.

The subject of his questioning is Kevin Rudd, Rudd is someone that I like. Let's hope Latham loses on Saturday and opens an opportunity for Rudd to take over.

Put Rudd in charge and they might even be able to convert me to the darkside. He could make a great Prime-Minister. I respect the way he thinks before he talks.

(Put Julia in as deputy and I'm sold)

How prescient.

While my Dad thinks of Rudd as a smarmy gitt I applaud the ALP on their change of leader. Beazley's capitulation to the anti-war intellectually bankrupt populist crowd meant I could not treat him as a serious alternative prime minister (next election I'm a one issue voter - do they get the war right?).

Rudd (to my knowledge) has not made any foolish proclamations. He has always appeared to me to be a sensible guy and I'm happy to once again be offered a reasonable choice.

The last election was a joke. Latham was not a serious candidate for prime minister and all the lemmings who voted for him simply out of blind hatred for Howard will forever hide their secret shame.

The next election is shaping up as a true contest and I think this can only be good for our democracy. I look forward to hearing their respective platforms. Bring on 2007.

Back in Town

2006-12-09T18:50:00.000+09:00

I've finally returned from a holiday (hired an apartment at a beach resort down in Vasse).

Sorry I chose not to post about it beforehand on the blog but that way my readers didn't have enough warning to be able to plan to burgle my house in my absence.

Normal blogging can resume on Monday.

Daylight Savings

2006-11-22T16:48:00.000+08:00

VICTORY

December 3.

Recovering

2006-11-19T19:49:00.000+08:00

I've almost recovered from the illness I've suffered this week. Four of the six in our household were struck down but fortunately Queen Dom and Baby Dom survived unscathed.

With the near completion of marking final exams upon me I now turn to the next task - that of the pass / fail borderline decisions. Many of these students are in their final year of University and the vast majority already have full time employment secured in business next year. Failures at this stage create many hardships, particularly for international students who sometimes have financial as well as visa issues to contend with.

Thus it's always a big call to have to make and not one to be taken lightly. So while it was fun last year I don't think I can continue to use pin the grade on the donkey. The blindfold raises too many questions.

I'll be making the hard calls tomorrow night. Suggestions are welcome and all will be considered.

Queasy

2006-11-14T15:40:00.000+08:00

Warning: This story may negatively affect some readers enjoyment of their dinner.

Slow going here at the KingDom. On Sunday morning my number two son went to another birthday party at which I'm sure he gorged himself silly.

When he returned somehow I managed to miss the warning signs:
Sign 1: When he got home I asked him how the party was and he wouldn't talk about it.
Sign 2: He proceeded to lie on the couch looking lethargic.
Sign 3: Willingly sharing with an older sibling. From the party he had brought home a bag of lollies and when his elder brother asked if he could have some my younger son agreed without complaint whatsoever.
Sign 4: Saying he felt really tired and wanted to go to bed in the middle of the day.

At this point I hadn't picked up on anything. In retrospect I can't believe how blind I actually was but Queen Dom was out working and thus wasn't there to point out the obvious. Maybe we become so reliant on our wives we forget to think for ourselves (don't tell Queen Dom this).

So I thought ok you can go to bed if you want. I picked him up off the couch, lifted him above my head, and he proceeded to spew forth the contents of his stomach (mostly party food) into my hair, face down the neck of my shirt and onto my precious IPod. As I stood there stunned for a couple of seconds wondering what happened a second eruption hit me with just as much gusto.

My eldest son screamed, ran, and locked himself in the study. Queen Dom wasn't home for another 7 hours and I was left to deal with it by myself. A long day indeed.

Epilogue
As I didn't feed him anything for the rest of the day except water I was confident he was under control. I put him to bed around 7ish and by 8 o'clock he had then managed to vomit all over his bed, floor, pillow, sheets and doona.

Queen Dom was hardly impressed when she got home (about 2 minutes after I smelt this). The last thing I remember was her saying "Why on earth didn't you think to give him a bucket!"

She wasn't happy with "I thought he was ok...". So while I'm pretty sure she wanted me to say "Because I'm an idiot" we have to remember who the real victim is here. Queen Dom may have spent her night washing it out of bedclothes but I spent the day getting it out of my hair.

Secure the border - we need a fence

2006-11-13T14:40:00.000+08:00

After this afternoon revealing the existence of this blog to a new generation of plebeians (guild mates) it is time to move quickly to secure the border.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2004-04-19-border-fence_x.htm

Once we have prevented the flow of illegal guild mates from entering the KingDom we'll be able to establish an orderly integration program. Of course it goes without saying that only guild mates of sufficient intelligence will be permitted to comment. Based on this criteria our initial estimates are for a doubling in the number of regular posters.

Psephology

2006-11-09T12:33:00.000+08:00

The US senate changed hands, marking my first predictions error since blogging began. I still stand by my record - predicting both the Howard increased margin of victory in 2004 as well as the Bush victory in 2004. The (at the time) bold prediction of an increase in Howard's majority is still my major success.

Tzar raises an interesting point on the voting margins in the states. Regarding Senate percentages:

In 2000 both parties got 48% and were split 50/50.

In 2002 Republicans had 51 seats with 51% of the Senate vote.

In 2004 Republicans had 55 seats with 45% of the Senate vote.

In 2006 Republicans have 49 seats.

It appears that 2004 was the outlier. Blue states in that year have gone more deeply blue. However the Republicans won 5 democratic seats where the sitting Democrat retired. This appears to have been the key factor accounting for the previous senate makeup and I'm guessing we now see a much more realistic version of how divided the states actually are.

Senate Live

2006-11-08T12:48:00.000+08:00

The networks haven't called it yet but looking at the House the networks are already calling a Democrat victory. Now we'll have to see how close I am on the numbers (I picked 229).

Senate Update:

5 Weeks ago I wrote:
I still believe the Senate comes down to 4 races. If the Democrats can pick up 3 of them they can take control.

Missouri: Dead heat
Tennessee: Dead heat
Virginia: Leaning Republican
New Jersey: Leaning Democrat

Well the Dem's have won Missouri and New Jersey. They lost Tennesee, but Virginia looks to be the decider. Dead even in Virginia. It looks like control will come down to this state. Expect lawyers!

Election Predictions

2006-11-07T11:56:00.000+08:00

As always I make my election predictions public in advance. This time I am predicting a Republican Senate with 51 seats (Lieberman will win as an independent - but he'll always be a Democrat) and a Democratic House of 229 seats.

I was listening to TWIT (This week in technology) and it made me appreciate the simplicity of the Australian electoral system. Americans are beginning to miss out on the joy of the pencil and democracy. In some things technology is not the answer.

The Democrats will not impeach the president, but they will start hearings into the pre-war intelligence. The Democrats will also act responsibly in the congress. An interesting comment I heard the other day "Give them a taste of power and they will want more, they won't do anything stupid that would jeopardize their chances in 2008".

Catching Up

2006-10-31T18:45:00.000+08:00

Sorry about the lack of posts. Ok I'm not really sorry but I felt the need to say that anyway. I guess my posting is quite often inversely proportional to WoW. TBC has been delayed until January so I guess there is plenty more time for blogging.

In this week's roundup there is no change in the predictions for the US mid-terms with the markets expecting a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. I've expanded out my list of competitive states to:

Missouri
New Jersey
Virginia
Tennessee
Montana
Maryland

The Dems need 5 of these 6 states to wrest control of the senate. I think it's unlikely, but not impossible (I give them about a 20% chance).

I don't think I've mentioned that I now have my Lord of the Rings CD collection. A great purchase, although the more I listen to it the more I realise how much Howard Shore recycles themes. I've decided he's good, but he's not John Williams.

I also haven't mentioned the follow up from a story I brought up a couple of weeks ago at my son's birthday. Remember the older boy who was left at my son's party? Well it turns out these particular parents have decided it's the way to go.

A week after our party the same girl my son invited was invited to an all-girl party for pre-primary children. Once again the parents turned up with their pre-primary girl and her older brother. They asked the parents of the birthday girl if he could stay and told them "He would get upset if he couldn't go".

An older, uninvited, trouble maker boy at an all pre-primary girl party. Yep that's a good idea. So while I'm astonished at these parents I feel sorry for the younger sister. The way things are going she's going to find the invites are drying up.

A new day

2006-10-24T13:04:00.000+08:00

We're coming to an end of another academic year and the bees are back. The bees are always back in October. Bees. I hate them. Having suffered a dozen painful attacks over my life, each one more painful and more swollen than the one before, I take a perverse pleasure in the willful destruction of bees. They may only live for six weeks, but surely that is six weeks longer than God ever intended for them.

What's worse is that as I sit here there is a swarm of bees about 2 meters to my left. The deciduous tree outside my first floor window always comes back to life in October and the bees love it. Their buzzing a constant reminder of their continued existence. When I first moved in to this office a couple of years ago I made the mistake of leaving my window slightly ajar. While seeking fresh air seemed like a reasonable idea at the time I returned half an hour later to find my office swarming with bees. The solution to the crisis was of course to nuke the room with industrial strength pesticide leaving no survivors. Years later I still enjoy a bug free existence as well as some minor inhuman toxic superpowers.

As summer returns the good news of the day is Daylight savings is back on the agenda. It passed today through the Labor Caucus and will be introduced to state parliament on Thursday.

I woke this morning at 6am to brilliant sunshine. Unfortunately my children also awake these days to brilliant sunshine at 6am. As we enforce a 7am getting out of bed time it would be much easier if it was still dark at 6am in the morning.

Fingers crossed it soon will be.

Podcasts by Request

2006-10-19T08:19:00.000+08:00

By Request a list of my favourite podcasts. They probably generate around 25-30 hours worth of listening each week. I try to listen to all of them.

History
BBC Documentary Archive
ABC: Hindsight

Science
Dr Karl's Great Moments in Science
Dr Karl on triple J
ABC: The Science Show
ABC: Ockham's Razor
ABC News Radio: Starstuff (Excellent Podcast)
ABC Radio National: The Philosopher's Zone
NPR Technology

Business
NPR Economy
The Economist (Excellent Podcast)
Time Magazine - Busines Review
BBC4 - Peter Days In Business Report (Excellent Podcast)

Perspective
View from the Left: ABC Late Night Live
View from the Soft Left: The National Interest
View from the Soft Left: Big Ideas
Libertarian Viewpoint: Radio National Counterpoint
View from the Right: Townhall.com The Hugh Hewit Show

Topical Take
ABC: Background Briefing (One of my favourites)

Overseas
ABC: Correspondent's Report
BBC: From our own correspondent

Politics
ABC News Radio: Question time from the house of representatives (Australian Parliament)
NPR: It's all Politics

Entertainment
Battlestar Galactica (I don't listen to these until after I've seen the episode)

There's another 8 or so Podcasts I subscribe to that I've forgotten off the top of my head. I'll add them to the list as I remember.

A time of change

2006-10-17T11:16:00.000+08:00

My eldest son held his first publicly attended birthday party yesterday. A good turnout as well with only one invited person pulling out due to illness. As I have long feared for Master Dom's school social skills (but never his intellect) I've never known whether he would be able to pull a crowd. Fortunately he didn't disappoint.

Annoying moment of the day went to the parent who turned up with an elder sibling requesting that the elder child could stay at the party while she went shopping. Queen Dom relented but the parent having the gall to ask bugs me. He was not invited and was certainly out of place - being a couple of years older and spending most of time demonstrating shouting techniques to the younger kids. What was worse was the fact that he cleaned up by gathering about 40% of the total rewards pool in the treasure hunt when we had 17 kids there. The younger kids couldn't compete.

My wife didn't give him a bag of sweets and a specially made $2 cupcake at the end. Good on her. Hey we spent $40 on cupcakes???

Classic moment of the day then went to my wife who managed to forget what one of the kids looked like at the end. Thinking that it was another sibling she also refused to hand him over a cupcake and sweets bag "No these are only for the party kids. You can't have one". Near tears he pointed out to her that he was a 'party kid'.

/clap
Good one.

My son's actual birthday is tomorrow and I promised to start paying him pocket money. I was thinking $2 a week, but this thought horrified Queen Dom who commented that he'd be able to buy 3 Milk Bars a week.

Now I have no idea what a Milk Bar is, but I'm skeptical that:
a) You could buy 3 of them with $2
b) Master Dom has even heard of a milk bar
c) Master Dom even wants a milk bar. Personally I think he'd save up and buy himself a gameboy with Pac-Man on it.

Anyway, we'll have to decide tonight. You can be sure that tomorrow morning he'll ask me how much he's getting. It's not that he wants the money. It's curiosity - he just wants to know what the number will be. So do I...

Friday Roundup

2006-10-13T16:58:00.000+08:00

The Democratic field for the 2008 presidential candidate just narrowed, with my preferred candidate dropping out.

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1545871,00.html

Hillary is now trading at 50%. She's looking more and more certain.

The US election season is heating up. The house is favoured to go Democrat, while the Senate is favoured to remain Republican.

I still believe the Senate comes down to 4 races. If the Democrats can pick up 3 of them they can take control.

Missouri: Dead heat
Tennessee: Dead heat
Virginia: Leaning Republican
New Jersey: Leaning Democrat

Of course Dick Cheney is personally hoping that the Republicans can hold 3 of these 4 seats. Otherwise he's going to find himself spending a lot more time in the Senate.

I feel his pain. Nothing worse than spending time in meetings. We didn't have any scheduled for today and boy it was great. I spent the day writing lectures for next week. I enjoy getting a decent chunk of solid time to focus on a topic and research it deeply. Plus I listened to Dvorak (all three CD's) multiple times. My IPod's battery is down to 80%, I can keep writing all night...

All things new

2006-10-12T08:30:00.000+08:00

I've upgraded to a Tecra S3 laptop today which weighs about half as much as my old laptop. Much faster, has a Geeforce video card, 80 gig HD, 1 gig Ram. Sweet notebook. The old one was beginning to feel a bit dated as I patiently waited each morning for it to boot.

I upgraded from a 17" to a Philips 19" LCD screen. My wife asked me last night, "When does a screen become to big? You've gone from a 15 to a 17 and now to a 19 inch screen." The answer is obvious. When you begin to get a cramp in your neck, and not before.

Also upgraded to a 1 gig USB 2.0 flash storage device. My old one wasn't USB 2.0 so that will be the biggest difference I'll notice here.

My $50 dot to dot books arrived this morning, as did Mark Steyn's latest book, and Dvorak's 7th, 8th and 9th symphonies. Can't wait to put these onto the IPod. I've really fallen for the IPod, especially when you can plug it straight into any speaker system and play any CD uploaded to it using the intuitive interface. Plus best of all playing it through my car's stereo system.

Last night I put a collection of Mussorgsky, Verdi, Wagner and Greig onto the IPod. Ready to go at a moments notice.

New gadgets, new reading, new music. All in all a good day and the only thing missing is my complete collection of the Lord of the Rings soundtrack. Companies don't compete so much on costs these days - they compete on distribution systems. The small company sending me those 3 CD's isn't fairing too well right now.

Day 3 Hawk

2006-10-11T11:40:00.000+08:00

Well it's clear that NK doesn't fear the west. They do however fear China. After all China is propping them up, and China can always turn off the tap.

What should we do.

Step 1:
Naval Blockade
Nothing gets in and out by sea.

Yes I know it's futile. They have land borders, smuggling plutonium is easy and the quantity that you need is miniscule. But at least it is a strong step, and it sends a message to Iran. That's the real battle. You can't wimp out on this. If Iran watches the world shrug their collective shoulders and ignore NK they will be emboldened.

Step 2:
Pressure on China. China is the only country who can actually apply any leverage on NK. I can't imagine China particularly wants NK to spark a regional arms race. That's not in their interest. Keep the pressure on them. China gets more economic benefit out of Wal-mart than they would out of NK. Pressure pressure pressure.

Yes I know it's easy to be hawkish from where I'm sitting. I'm not sitting in Seoul with 13,000 artillery pieces pointing right at me from just the other side of the DMZ. This is serious stuff, but we have to do something. Iran is watching.

Day 2 Hawk

2006-10-10T13:50:00.000+08:00

Dom's simple summary of world politics:

Iraq - Good idea, handled badly. Result: Cockup.

Labor Party: I actually think there are plenty of clever and fully sane people in Australia's Labor party. Mark Latham just wasn't one of them. As I've posted before I'm no fan of Howard, but it's amazing how many people let their Howard hatred overcome common sense last election. Fortunately Australia wasn't dumb enough to elect Latham. Now we move to today.

I've always liked Beazley (not just because I'm from WA), but after hearing him acting as a popularist yesterday I lost all respect for him. Sadly I have to move him to the insane camp and hope they get a new leader before the next election. Australia needs a real opposition. It's time for them to act.

Iran - Calling them a part of the axis of evil killed off the country's reformers. Result: A country which showed signs of progress is now going nuclear. A country which is a natural enemy of Sunni extremism is forced into a corner and left with very few options. Not a good idea Neo-cons.

Result: We stuffed it up. We backed them into a corner and allowed the old guard to crack down on the reformers. Now we have to stop them. They're going nuclear and that will be a disaster. An even bigger disaster than North Korea getting nukes. However because Iraq is so screwed up we can't deal with Iran, which is a far bigger threat.

North Korea - NK wants cash, and they want to survive. We know they sell narcotics, they sell weapons, they counterfeit money. Whatever it takes.

Of course they'll sell nukes for cash, but there isn't really much we can do about it. North Korea going nuclear has absolutely nothing to do with the Axis of Evil speech. They were already going Nuclear long before that. They signed deals in the early 90s to give up nukes while continually working on them in secret. They were never going to stop.

Options: Bad and Worse. I don't know which to choose.

Sad day for the world. Even sadder if we do nothing about Iran.

Hawkish

2006-10-09T13:35:00.000+08:00

One thing I can't stand reading is intellectual bankruptcy.

Comments like: "North Korea doesn't have any oil so the US leaves them alone"

Yes sherlock that's it. Nothing to do with the fact they have enough artillery poised to wipe a major western capital of 10million people off the map in the first hours of the war. Nothing to do with the fact they've been presumed to have had nuclear weapons for some time, and they have a proven delivery system capable of reaching Japan.

North Korea is too dangerous a nut to crack. Friendly casualties would be enormous. Gee I wonder why the US chose to deal with them last? Let's go for the low hanging fruit.

The real problem with the war in Iraq is that it proved to Iran that if you have nukes (like North Kora was presumed to) then you're safe from the US. The US will try to use the UN multilateral system in that case - as they did with NK, and it's a failed system to begin with.

Iran, for all it's talk, is of course persuing nuclear weapons of their own. It's already too late for NK. Perhaps its not too late for Iran. The mismanagement of Iraq is a disaster. A disaster because we're now unable to do what needs to be done while there is still time. This is why our leaders stand condemned.

iPod Nano

2006-10-08T07:56:00.000+08:00

I bought myself an iPod Nano on Friday. I also bought the in car-charger / FM transmitter.

http://www.apple.com/ipodnano/

Love it.

I've subscribed to 27 podcasts already.

A mix of Science, History, Left-leaning current affairs, Right-leaning current affairs, The Economist, BBC In Business, Parliamentary Question Time, Philosophy and of course Battlestar Galactica.

Now I just have to find time to listen to them all.

October Update and History

2006-10-05T08:37:00.000+08:00

On the betting markets the GoP's fortunes have plummeted in the last week.

Before the Foley revelations they were at a 60% probability of controlling the house, now they are trading at 40%.

In the Senate I believe it comes down to 4 races:
Missouri
Tennessee
Virginia
New Jersey

Assuming no surprises in the other states then the side which wins 3 of these 4 will control the Senate. Currently no other races appear competitive.

Link of the Day:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Crisis

50 years ago this month. You should refresh your knowledge on it.

Conspiracy Theories

2006-10-04T18:15:00.000+08:00

A classic from Rolling Stone magazine.

BUSH: So, what's the plan again?

CHENEY: Well, we need to invade Iraq and Afghanistan. So what we've decided to do is crash a whole bunch of remote-controlled planes into Wall Street and the Pentagon, say they're real hijacked commercial planes, and blame it on the towelheads; then we'll just blow up the buildings ourselves to make sure they actually fall down.

RUMSFELD: Right! And we'll make sure that some of the hijackers are agents of Saddam Hussein! That way we'll have no problem getting the public to buy the invasion.

CHENEY: No, Don, we won't.

RUMSFELD: We won't?

CHENEY: No, that's too obvious. We'll make the hijackers Al Qaeda and then just imply a connection to Iraq.

RUMSFELD: But if we're just making up the whole thing, why not just put Saddam's fingerprints on the attack?

CHENEY: (sighing) It just has to be this way, Don. Ups the ante, as it were. This way, we're not insulated if things go wrong in Iraq. Gives us incentive to get the invasion right the first time around.

BUSH: I'm a total idiot who can barely read, so I'll buy that. But I've got a question. Why do we need to crash planes into the Towers at all? Since everyone knows terrorists already tried to blow up that building complex from the ground up once, why don't we just blow it up like we plan to anyway, and blame the bombs on the terrorists?

RUMSFELD: Mr. President, you don't understand. It's much better to sneak into the buildings ourselves in the days before the attacks, plant the bombs and then make it look like it was exploding planes that brought the buildings down. That way, we involve more people in the plot, stand a much greater chance of being exposed and needlessly complicate everything!

CHENEY: Of course, just toppling the Twin Towers will never be enough. No one would give us the war mandate we need if we just blow up the Towers. Clearly, we also need to shoot a missile at a small corner of the Pentagon to create a mightily underpublicized additional symbol of international terrorism -- and then, obviously, we need to fake a plane crash in the middle of fucking nowhere in rural Pennsylvania.

RUMSFELD: Yeah, it goes without saying that the level of public outrage will not be sufficient without that crash in the middle of fucking nowhere.

CHENEY: And the Pentagon crash -- we'll have to do it in broad daylight and say it was a plane, even though it'll really be a cruise missile.

BUSH: Wait, why do we have to use a missile?

CHENEY: Because it's much easier to shoot a missile and say it was a plane. It's not easy to steer a real passenger plane into the Pentagon. Planes are hard to come by.

BUSH: But aren't we using two planes for the Twin Towers?

CHENEY: Mr. President, you're missing the point. With the Pentagon, we use a missile, and say it was a plane.

BUSH: Right, but I'm saying, why don't we just use a plane and say it was a plane? We'll be doing that with the Twin Towers, right?

CHENEY: Right, but in this case, we use a missile. (Throws hands up in frustration) Don, can you help me out here?

RUMSFELD: Mr. President, in Washington, we use a missile because it's sneakier that way. Using an actual plane would be too obvious, even though we'll be doing just that in New York.

BUSH: Oh, OK.

RUMSFELD: The other good thing about saying that it was a passenger jet is that that way, we have to invent a few hundred fictional victims and account for a nonexistent missing crew and plane. It's always better when you leave more cover story to invent, more legwork to do and more possible holes to investigate. Doubt, legwork and possible exposure -- you can't pull off any good conspiracy without them.

BUSH: You guys are brilliant! Because if there's one thing about Americans -- they won't let a president go to war without a damn good reason. How could we ever get the media, the corporate world and our military to endorse an invasion of a secular Iraqi state unless we faked an attack against New York at the hands of a bunch of Saudi religious radicals? Why, they'd never buy it. Look at how hard it was to get us into Vietnam, Iraq the last time, Kosovo?

CHENEY: Like pulling teeth!

RUMSFELD: Well, I'm sold on the idea. Let's call the Joint Chiefs, the FAA, the New York and Washington, D.C., fire departments, Rudy Giuliani, all three networks, the families of a thousand fictional airline victims, MI5, the FBI, FEMA, the NYPD, Larry Eagleburger, Osama bin Laden, Noam Chomsky and the fifty thousand other people we'll need to pull this off. There isn't a moment to lose!

BUSH: Don't forget to call all of those Wall Street hotshots who donated $100 million to our last campaign. They'll be thrilled to know that we'll be targeting them for execution as part of our thousand-tentacled modern-day bonehead Reichstag scheme! After all, if we're going to make martyrs -- why not make them out of our campaign paymasters? Shit, didn't the Merrill Lynch guys say they needed a refurbishing in their New York offices?

RUMSFELD: Oh, they'll get a refurbishing, all right. Just in time for the "Big Wedding"!

ALL THREE: (cackling) Mwah-hah-hah!

Return of the Jedi

2006-10-03T20:22:00.000+08:00

I remember this scene well:

Darth Vader: You may dispense with the pleasantries, Commander. I'm here to put you back on schedule.

Moff Jerjerrod: I assure you, Lord Vader. My men are working as fast as they can.

Darth Vader: Perhaps I can find new ways to motivate them. Maybe we could spring for an employee stock ownership plan or a day care center on Level 23-B.

I was searching for a picture of Yoda with a Miller lite can (don't ask) when I came across this. I just love the stock ownership plan in the Death Star. Although I always imagined it as a cost centre for the empire and not a profitable enterprise.

Grats Eagles

2006-09-30T17:29:00.000+08:00

First game of footy I've watched this year. Enjoyable one to.

As I drove in to work after the game groups of people were out lining the streets with their eagles banners. I of course waved and made out I was a die hard fan.

All in all a good feeling around the city, it's contagious.

D3

2006-09-28T08:33:00.000+08:00

So the student who claimed he couldn't sit the deferred exam, or the deferred deferred exam and was seeking a deferred deferred deferred mid-semester exam came under scrutiny.

It turned out that he's in the other side of the country as we speak. So what happened was he saw a Doctor, got a medical certificate for a viral infection (Dr speak for a common cold), proceeded to tell us he had the Flu (obviously the student having no idea what the Flu actually is) then jumped on a plane. Yeah real sick.

To make matters worse the medical note from the Dr appears to have been changed. Originally it said he was sick for 5 days, but it's been crossed out and changed to 12 days. Obviously to fit around the interstate trip.

Anyway my offer is simple. He can take a grade based on his final exam and tutorial work only, or he can withdraw from the course at no Academic penalty but he won't get his HECS fees waived (it's too late for that).

No more Mr nice Dom.

Students and Jobs

2006-09-27T14:10:00.000+08:00

One thing that really bugs me is students with jobs.

I'll always remember the wisdom of an old professor who explained to me many years ago that if they are full time students then work is not a legitimate excuse. Like any good young academic I took this onboard and it's now an intractable part of my thought process.

The disconnect between my wimpy accomodating actions and my heartless mind only now serves to cause me grief. As I am currently bending over backwards to accommodate the deferred deferred exam I find myself more and more disjointed from my own beliefs.

For now 3 is the most I'm running. Consider them lucky to get that. In 10 more years I'm sure my actions will match my rhetoric.

US Elections 2008

2006-09-26T17:43:00.000+08:00

Democratic Nominee's

Clinton 41%
Gore 17%
Mark Warner 16%
Edwards 9%
Kerry 4%

Familiar faces to those of us outside the US. The exception is Mark Warner who I think is the only one of those candidates that might actually beat a Republican.

Warner campaigns in second life. Hehe.
http://nwn.blogs.com/nwn/2006/08/the_second_life.html Sensible guy!

Expected President

McCain(R) 23%
Clinton (D) 19%
Giuliani (R) 15%
Romney (R) 11%
Gore (D) 10%
Warner (D) 9%
Edwards (D) 6%

I know it's very early, and a longshot, but Giuliani is my prediction.

Now if shorting these futures is possible I might be able to design a profitable strategy. Go short the Republican party (currently selling at under 50%) and go long all the Republican candidates which add up to over 50.

Now you got me thinking...

Spring is in the air

2006-09-26T11:55:00.000+08:00

And it's a glorious day on campus today. Sometimes you have to be grateful when you're forced outside by that annual fire drill exercise. Pale skin untouched by the sun's scarring rays returns to life. Fortunately this years planners chose a fine spring day and evacuated us to the safe confines of a nearby grassy knoll.

As I type I'm interrupted by the sight of an apparent 8 year old student walking around outside unsupervised? They do start young these days.

Yes it's true. It's such a nice day I'm trying to liven the blog mood around here. My reader, friend & poster Tzarkoth, who by all accounts is a decent chap carries with him such a dreadfully depressing aura that I felt it was time to change the pace.

My other reader Destreuth sends me mocking emails about my posts. He's yet to expose himself to the searing heat of public scrutiny. Coward you cry. Well no, more likely lazy. So I've turned off registration for posting required. All too much effort for the young man. Now he has no excuse.

US Mid-term Elections Update

2006-09-25T11:15:00.000+08:00

Much more trading on the betting floor than there was just 8 days ago (see how much the spread has tightened).

GOP Senate Control
Bid 82.7
Ask 83.0

GOP House Control
Bid 57.2
Ask 57.9

With regards to the spread in the Senate note that the current spread is inside the previous spread, thus all you can conclude is that the amount of trading has increased.

In the house the buy price is now greater than the previous ask price so there is a definite shift towards the market believing in a greater likelihood of the GOP retaining control.

Just two weeks ago the market thought the odds of the Republicans losing the House was around 60%. Now it's down to around 43%, things are trending in the GOP's favour at the moment.

Will it continue? I don't know. But the more Chavez and Ahmadinejad talk the higher the GOP's numbers will go. Karl Rove must must be rubbing his hands with glee when these two stand up at the UN.

Weekend roundup

2006-09-24T12:02:00.001+08:00

I went to a wedding yesterday afternoon. It was no typical wedding but I'm not going to go any further than that in describing it - being of a relative of my in-laws and valuing my liberty.

However, one thing I did laugh at was the large number of people missing from the reception during the happy couples grand entrance. Everyone was outside sitting in their cars listening to the last 5 minutes of the Eagles v Crows preliminary finals match. Heh. Good timing.

I've been working on next week's lectures. Frustrated by the fact that I can't find my handwritten notes on these topics that I've made over the last few years. Very annoying.

Once I finish the lectures I need to think about writing my final exam. Unfortunately these have to be sent to the printers months in advance. It's probably the most stressful part of the job (submitting final exams). The worst nightmare is if you stuff up something and have to stand up in front of halls of 700 people reading out corrections in November. No thanks. I prefer to get it right the first time.

Oh and finally congrats to the Opals. Basketball world champions.

Frist School Assembly

2006-09-22T14:49:00.000+08:00

My eldest son had his first ever performance in front of the school assembly this morning.

I watched his year standing at the front to sing 'Advance Australia Fair' followed up with 'Bananas in Pyjamas'.

One our official national anthem, while the second was sung by the children with such gusto that just for a minute I was firmly convinced that it should be.

US Presidential Elections 2008

2006-09-21T18:35:00.000+08:00

Current betting is on Hilliary Clinton versus John McCain. With Hillary going on to win the Presidency.

Thing is I'd be surprised if either of these candidates wins the nomination from their respective parties. That's just my personal take on it, although when you think back to my previous predictions I did remarkably well two years ago predicting both the US and Australian elections correctly well in advance.

However seeing as I'm not putting up cold hard cash perhaps I'm reading the US electorate incorrectly. We'll know in 2 years.

Let's try it again

2006-09-21T17:05:00.000+08:00

I had to reorder my Dvorak symphonies last night. Amazon couldn't charge my credit card or something so they cancelled my order.

So while I was on the site I also ordered The Lord of the Rings trilogy soundtrack by Howard Shore. Quite expensive, but I'm a sucker for movie soundtracks. Then I through in a hardcover copy of Mark Steyn's new book coming out in October. Someone who can always bring on a good chuckle when you need one. Then for good measure I added on another $50 worth of dot to dot books for my 2 oldest kids. $50? That's crazy.

Even more crazy is the fact that Amazon allows you to order used copies of Dot to Dot books.

What the heck?

Guild Elections

2006-09-20T13:49:00.000+08:00

It's that time of year again. Guild elections.

The young and ambitious who feel they need to get elected to something in order to succeed in business or politics are out on mass.

The worst part is when they come in to my lectures and ask for speaking time at the beginning. I have 400 students and I'm sure they would much rather be generally listening to my dulcet tones than the inane chatter of the hopeful electee.

I had one such student yesterday. Promising she would talk for 30 seconds who managed to waffle for about 4 minutes about nothing (as far as I could tell). A lot of talk of community but I never actually heard her mention who she was, which party or what she proposed to actually do for the university community.

I drifted off into sleep only to be awoken by applause from the 400 students. What the heck? Well I'm glad they knew what she was talking about, but then we generally do get the politicians we deserve. Maybe they deserve this one?

Perhaps I'm just resentful because the urchins standing around the polling booths don't even try to burden me with pamphlets anymore. When I first started here they often mistook me for a fellow student as I walked around campus. Sometimes I had to take great pains to avoid them.

Now some ten years later no-one make that mistake anymore. I can walk boldly through a crowd of election workers and no-one will thinks for a second I'm a young willing potential voter.

I wore my old jeans today. Maybe I'll stick an ipod in my ear and try and walk through the horde one last time.

Two Years Later...

2006-09-19T15:04:00.000+08:00

It's interseting to see that two years ago tomorrow I posted about oil supplies.http://domitar.blogspot.com/2004/09/oil-supplies.html

Back then according to the CIA we (the world) had enough for 37 years. Today two years later the CIA estimate we have enough for 46 years. I'm sad to see that Australian figures haven't been updated.

While I know that countries tend to overestimate their supplies (particularly OPEC countries who's production quota is tied to their proved reserves) it's still an interesting trend.

Certainly it's indisputable that it is an extinguishable resource so it is of interest, but unless you're an insider there is really no way to know the true figures.

This year we've seen a huge jump in the price of oil, but recently it's been trending the other way. Supply and demand as I see it. With the price jumping significantly production appears to have jumped leading to an oversupply at the current high price. Economics 101 but it I always stick with occam's razor where I can.

Still the only thing we can do is sit back and watch these numbers over time. There's too much money involved in energy for anyone not in the industry to be able to believe anything either side of the various energy debates puts forward without many giant teaspoons of salt.

More Odds From the Antipodes

2006-09-19T15:01:00.000+08:00

The next Australian Federal Election:

Coalition Victory: $1.65
Labor Victory: $2.20

Source: Sportsbet

Comments Enabled

2006-09-19T12:36:00.000+08:00

Well I just worked out how to enable comments. However I have no idea if doing so will be something I'll live to regret.

Probably not, I can't imagine my reader is going to cause that much trouble. I have to pay him to read this stuff anyway.

Over to you...

15-Man Ony

2006-09-19T11:44:00.000+08:00

Yeah it's been done with less I know, but 15 man Ony. Damn that's a lot of fun. Pushing your limits is far more exciting than farming instances with 40 people. It actually feels like your actions make a difference. That's the key.

My favourite exchange of the night was when we were disussing the idea of putting everyone on the same side.

Someone said (over teamspeak): "Isn't that a little risky?"

Reply heard "I think we already accepted the fact that it was risky when we zoned in without the other 25 people".

Touche.

Mental Capacity

2006-09-18T10:32:00.000+08:00

I'm no expert on research into mental aptitude but I can certainly enjoy watching the debates.

Here's a news story that came out today. 'Men more intelligent than women'.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,20430001-36398,00.html

Classic comment at the end.
But women needn't feel despondent, with scientists saying they can achieve just as much as men - as long as they work harder.

I chuckled.

First priority... mail this one to Queen Dom.

The AFL

2006-09-17T19:24:00.000+08:00

I watched 10 minutes of AFL on Friday night. The first football I've watched this year (being an old North Melbourne supporter from way back perhaps you can understand this).

They asked my son at pre-primary about two weeks ago who he supported and he had no idea as he's never seen any football in his life. We don't have time to watch TV. All the other kids mainly supported either the Eagles or Dockers and fearing for his social development we made him choose one.

He picked the Dockers, so I was pleasantly surprised to see them win versus the Demons in my 10 minutes of interest.

Whether I now am personally qualified as a fanatic is open for debate but here are the updated odds:

Sydney $ 2.60
West Coast $2.90
Adelaide $4.00
Fremantle $7.50

Looks like I better get him to enjoy it while he can.

Amazon

2006-09-17T16:07:00.000+08:00

I ordered Dvorak's 7th, 8th and 9th Symphonies yesterday. I'm looking forward to them arriving in a few weeks.

Listening to Siegfreid's Death and Funeral March right now. Surpisingly uplifting for a morbid title.

US Elections - Market Odds

2006-09-17T15:59:00.000+08:00

Current Odds

US Senate GOP Control
Bid 81%
Ask 88%

US House GOP Control
Bid 51.6%
Ask 54.2%

Source: tradesports.com

What I find amazing is that
http://www.electoral-vote.com:2006/
is currently predicting a 50-50 senate using recent polling data.

I accept that there may not be a balanced distribution around the midpoint but surely something is way out of line in those odds. Do we go with the futures market or the polling data? Your call. I tend to believe the market.

Be interesting to watch these odds over the coming months.

EU versus Australia

2006-09-06T11:22:00.000+08:00

I never realised this before but Australia is around twice the size of the entire European Union.

Sure most of it is uninhabitable desert, but it's still fascinating.

Setting the Record Straight

2006-09-06T11:17:00.000+08:00

It's been bothering me for quite some time that I previously posted I would like to see Hillary run in 2008.

Let me be clear. After seeing her in action as a US senator for the last few years it's clear to me we know nothing about her. She's walking that fine line trying to keep the leftwing of the Democratic party on side (thus avoiding what happened to Joe Lieberman) so she can win the nomination. Simultaneously she needs to maintain her credibility with the centre to have any chance of winning the election.

Her strategy seems to be to keep her name in the headlines while keeping her policy positions out of them.

As I do not know what she stands for, I cannot at this time support her. Consider the support withdrawn.

The Dom Lives

2005-11-08T17:37:00.000+08:00

Shortly after Queen Dom discovered the KingDom - blogging mysteriously ended.

Now that her interest has waned secret blogging can resume! She'll never know...

Does Money Buy you Happiness?

2004-11-17T10:20:00.000+08:00

http://uninews.unimelb.edu.au/articleid_1762.html

The next time someone quotes you "Money doesn't buy happiness".

The correct response is, "Not if you use as your measure a person's income, but if using net-wealth (a more static measure) then yes it does".

I heard an interview yesterday with the lead researcher in the HILDA project where he stated that the well known increase in happiness from being married is equivalent to the level of happiness you derive from around $1 million dollars of net wealth.

Hmmm.... Can we trade?

EDIT: (Just kidding Queen Dom)

EDIT 2: Blogging can lead to negative happiness. I must inform the researchers of a new variable that they missed.

Silenced

2004-11-11T17:22:00.000+08:00

It seems many pundits have been taking it easy the last few weeks, I'm guilty too.

The good news is that after at least a three month hiatus the KingDom has been returned to the number one google site for Domitar.

Well done everybody (free drinks at the KingDom tonight from 6).

Now I need to find something interesting to say. Most of my thoughts lately have revolved around exam marking. That's enough to dull anyone's senses. The bane of academia.

The King shall return!

Why don't you call?

2004-11-03T14:52:00.000+08:00

Still no TV network is prepared to make the call.

NBC and Fox now agree that Bush will win Ohio, but they haven't given New Mexico to Bush yet.

New Mexico is even more certain to be Republican than Ohio which they have called.

In New Mexico Kerry is polling 47% and needs 67% of the remaining vote to win.

I guess the networks are too scared to be the first to call in case they get it wrong. Or maybe they're worried about the ratings?

Bush Victory

2004-11-03T13:43:00.000+08:00

I'm prepared to call a Bush victory now.

Kerry needs 57% of the remaning votes to be counted in Ohio to go his way. I don't think it's going to happen.

US Election

2004-10-29T10:40:00.000+08:00

After my recent success calling a Howard win with an increased majority (though I did underestimate the size of the increase), it's time to see if I can repeat my performance with the US Federal election.

It's a hard one, a few months ago I called Bush to win in a landslide. I'm now thinking it will still be a Bush victory, but not as convincingly as I previously thought.

I previously thought Florida would stay Republican, but I'm now thinking Florida might switch, yet Bush will still win.

As for who I want to win. Well it probably doesn't matter that much. In fact I think it would be quite funny for Kerry to win, and watch just how long it will take for the rest of the world to realise it doesn't make any difference. Republicans and Democrats both think America first.

Still, I have argued before, Hillary's best chance is if Kerry loses, so I guess that would be my preference. Hillary in 2008.

Red States Blue States

2004-10-25T16:43:00.000+08:00

Let's have a look at the Federal Election results:

Overall Two Party Preferred Basis:

Coalition 52.7%
Labor 47.3%

Now State by State Seats:

NSW C-27 L- 20
VIC C-18 L - 19
QLD C-21 L - 6
WA C-10 L - 4
SA C-7 L - 2
TAS C-2 L-3
ACT C-0 L-2
NT C-1 L - 1

Undecided 4

Combining the Results in Qld, WA, and SA (and making some predictions on the close seats):
Coalition 39
Labor 14

That's a pretty hefty margin that Labor has to be able to make up elsewhere in the country.

Blogging will resume shortly

2004-10-23T13:52:00.000+08:00

Busy week this week, but Queen Domitar has the last exam of her life today.

Seeing as it's the last one, the King has been trying to provide a bit of extra support this week and blogging has suffered.

Back soon.

The Big Assertion

2004-10-11T20:47:00.000+08:00

King Domitar is an economist, so hopefully I know what I'm talking about here for a change.

Quote: "Interest rates will always be higher under a Labor government than under a Coalition one"

You can NOT call this statement a lie because it is impossible to disprove.

A better criticism would be "An over-emphasised unproven assertion".

Historical evidence is clouded by the different economic conditions, but more importantly by the increasing globalisation of capital markets (which has moved tremendously in the last 20 years thanks to technology).

Everyone knows by now that governments only have a marginal effect on interest rates when compared to global market forces for capital. That does not mean they have no effect at the margin. They can create an environment where business invests rather than returning capital to their shareholders (which would put upward pressure on interest rates).

So the statement is not a lie.

It is an unproven assertion, you can accept it, you can choose not to, or you can argue your own case knowing you will never be able to prove your case either. You can't call it a lie.

Person 1 "God / Allah / Vishnu created the world"
Person 2 "You LIE!"

W.A. Senate Update

2004-10-11T20:03:00.000+08:00

Turning to my home stats where the vote counted stands at 74.82%

Current quotas:

Labor 2 quotas

Liberals 3.9 quotas
Greens 1.1 quotas

In an electorate of 1,237,349 people the conservatives look like falling 10,000 votes short of picking up a 4th seat. That's amazingly close and shows the scope of the conservative victory in the west.

It's also worth noting that the arguably deceptively named Liberals for Forests picked up almost 4,000 votes and sent them to the Greens.

If I find some time tomorrow afternoon I'll have a look at the Queensland senate race. It sounds like the Coalition look like winning 4 of the 6 seats in that state. This will give them a clear majority in the Senate without needing any votes from Family First.

I heard today (from someone in the know) that the reason Family First polled so badly in W.A. (only 0.78%) was because of their preference deal where they put the 'anti-Christian' Democrats ahead of the Liberal party. Apparently the word on the Christian street last week was to vote CDP (1.9% of the primary vote).

If this is true, then what I don't understand is why Family First outpolled the CDP convincingly in most of the other states where they made the same deal.

Victorian Christian voters presumably in retrospect think it was a good deal. Without the votes of the Democrats they would have been behind Labor and not been able to use Labor preferences to win the seat.

Victorian Senate Analysis

2004-10-10T20:35:00.000+08:00

How the ALP gave away control of the senate...

Here is a look at the Senate race in Victoria.
The Libs take 3 seats, Labor 2, with the last seat up for grabs.

Assumptions:

Everyone votes above the line (using the group voting tickets)
Current trends continue in the postal votes
Ignoring an insignificant 0.0101 quotas from a couple of independents

The final 5 parties are (in order):

1) The Greens (0.6675 quotas)
2) ALP (0.5936 quotas)
3) Family First (0.3697 quotas)
4) DLP - Democratic Labor Party (0.2132 quotas)
5) Democrats (0.1457 quotas)

The Democrats are eliminated and their quota is redistributed to the top surviving party on their group voting ticket. They had also collected Group S independents who similarly get redistributed.

Democrat preferences go to Family First (0.1297 quotas).
Group S independents go to the Greens (0.016 quotas).

New Standings:
1) The Greens (0.6835 quotas)
2) ALP (0.5936 quotas)
3) Family First (0.4994 quotas)
4) DLP - Democratic Labor Party (0.2132 quotas)

The DLP is eliminated and their quota is redistributed. They had picked up the Libs / Nationals.

DLP preferences go to Family First (0.1297 quotas)
Liberal / National preferences go to Family First (0.0835 quotas)

New Standings:
1) Family First (0.7126 quotas)
2) The Greens (0.6835 quotas)
3) ALP (0.5936 quotas)

The ALP is eliminated and their quota is redistributed.

They had picked up the Ex-Service, Service & Veterans Party.

ALP preferences go to Family First (0.5701 quotas)
Ex-Service, Service & Veterans Party preferences go to Family First (0.0235 quotas)

Final Standings:
1) Family First (1.3062 quotas)
2) The Greens (0.6835 quotas)

Without both the Democrats and the DLP combined Family First would have been sitting in 3rd place with three to go and eliminated.

It was ALP preferences that decided the final result.

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2004/guide/gtv_vic_i_10.htm

They put Family First ahead of the Greens. If they had of reversed the order then the conservatives would not have control of the Senate.

Who ended up sending their preferences to Family First:

CDP Christian Party
Liberal/Nationals
One Nation
Liberals for forests
Non-Custodial Parents Party
Ex-Service, Service & Veterans Party
The Aged and Disability Pensioners Party
The Progressives (Meg Lees)
Democrats
DLP - Democratic Labor Party
Australian Labor Party

They needed the preferences of all of the last 3 parties to get in.

Family First get a whopping 0.57 of a quota from ALP voters. It's also worth pointing out that the Greens preferenced the ALP above Family First. They put Steve Fielding #55. The ALP didn't return the favour (Steve Fielding #8).

Too clever by half?

Some Quick Calculations

2004-10-10T16:05:00.000+08:00

I did some quick calculations on the Senate race in W.A.

312,000 votes still to count.

A 1% swing towards the conservative parties (combined) with give the liberals a 4th seat in WA!

Unlikely though I guess. On current trends they will end up around 10,000 votes short of a 4th seat. The Greens will then take the seat.

How did I go?

2004-10-10T13:31:00.000+08:00

I'm quite happy with my predictive abilities.

Still waiting for a couple of undecided seats, but as predicted here the Coalition did increase their majority.

I'll have something to say about the attitude of people on the left tomorrow, but here is my general opinion:

Frankly their attitude is a turnoff. I hate to tell them this (they might learn something and correct the error) but their failure to accept defeat graciously will ensure another conservative victory at the next election.

They may profess wisdom, but they certainly haven't learnt anything. Demeaning the informed choices of many of us as effectively falling for the Coalition's lies does not engender future support.

Note: I made my choice based on the health care policies of the two parties. The Coalition's was better.

Victory

2004-10-10T13:21:00.000+08:00

As I walked to the local polling booth yesterday with my eldest son I came across the posters adorning the walls of the school.

"Vote Labor - Free Health Care to over 75"

I had a feeling of dread. Could we be so bought?

The only worker who even tried to hand me an election pamphlet was a Green, who I politely declined. Most people accept all they are offered, but I could not so demean myself.

Once inside I calmly filled out my vote then spent a bit of time looking around. Every single elderly person in the room had a how to vote Liberal card. I then realised the folly of Labor's plan. I'm guessing once you've voted one way all your life it is too late to change, no matter the bribe.

(I know they were really targeting the soon to retire baby boomers, but 75 is still a long way off for them).

Feeling better I returned home, via the school playground equipment for my son. He enjoyed his first taste of democracy in action.

Bold Prediction

2004-10-08T22:08:00.000+08:00

Ok, using my head on this one.

My prediction is an increased Coalition majority. 80 seats in the House and 37 seats in the Senate.

My heart tells me I should be worried though. Something very scary about forcing plebians to choose the fate of the country. Offering them free health care to be paid for by someone else, regardless of need or the ability to pay. Yes - I'm very scared.

I would hope I would have the moral conviction not to be thus bribed should I be the one being pork barreled.

Yes I'm scared of what might happen tomorrow

2004-10-08T17:31:00.000+08:00

I've got a bad feeling that Medicare Old is a vote winner, even though it's bad policy.

This is the issue that decided my vote. This policy must be defeated.

You introduce it, and you'll never get rid of it.

I've never put my views out there before, but I feel so strongly on this issue that Labor must be defeated.

Rudd

2004-10-07T18:38:00.000+08:00

Been listening to Philip Adams tonight. He's actually conducted a reasonable and relatively unbiased interview. Quite impressive really.

The subject of his questioning is Kevin Rudd, Rudd is someone that I like. Let's hope Latham loses on Saturday and opens an opportunity for Rudd to take over.

Put Rudd in charge and they might even be able to convert me to the darkside. He could make a great Prime-Minister. I respect the way he thinks before he talks.

(Put Julia in as deputy and I'm sold)

Feigned Outrage

2004-10-07T11:16:00.000+08:00

A new poll is up on www.news.com.au

Will the conclusion of American weapons inspectors that Iraq effectively had no WMDs since 1991 affect how you vote on Saturday?

1489 50.27% No - I will still vote Coalition
870 29.37% No - I will still vote Labor
603 20.35% Yes - I will now switch my vote to Labor / the Greens

Assuming this is a reasonable cross section of the community - something approaching 20% of the survey respondants are liars. As the coalition never polls more than around 51% of the vote. These people have not made a 'switch'. Feigned outrage this is.

Can you truly believe online polls?

I went easy on him

2004-10-06T23:27:00.000+08:00

There I was calling it a simple Cheney victory in the debate today over Edwards. Not a tough call. (I only listened on the radio, as in the Presidential debate, so I didn't get to see the body language)

Then on the way home from work I was astounded to hear the ABC call it a Cheney victory in the PM program. If the undeniably anti-bush ABC will call it a Cheney win, then I'm prepared to change my vote. Not just a simple win, but a spanking.

The only people calling it an Edwards victory appear to be the Rather unbiased people at CBS.

Vice Presidential Debate

2004-10-06T11:14:00.000+08:00

Fascinating debate this morning. More interesting than the presidential debate.

My initial feeling was a win for Cheney. He's just a better performer and Edwards didn't score any blows.

I've checked out a few of the leftie blogs and they are calling it a draw. I guess that confirms a Cheney victory. (Lefties call this one a draw, people on the right call the presidential debate a draw).

So we'll assume most of the mainstream media will call it a draw. I'm betting many Republicans wish that Cheney could sub in for Bush in the next two presidential debates. All of those people who believe Cheney runs things anyway shouldn't object.

Blowout

2004-10-05T17:54:00.000+08:00

Coalition $1.20
Labor $4

The odds have never looked this bad for Labor.
Probability of Coalition win > 71%

I see the AMA has come out against Medicare Old. I have to agree. Medicare Old has inspired me to anti-labor activism. I've never felt so strongly political before. The most important election I can remember.

Still 4 days to go, don't get your hopes up yet.

Coalition peaking at the right time

2004-10-05T13:33:00.000+08:00

Coalition $1.25
Labor $3.50

Based on these odds, the markets believe there is a minimum 67% chance the Coalition will win.

Hmmm that still leaves a 1/3 chance of us heading down the European welfare state model.

This current Labor party is too Whitlamite for my liking. Bring back Kimbo, try out Rudd or even stick the lovely Julia in.

Dump Crean, dump him now.

Coalition bounce

2004-10-04T21:25:00.000+08:00

Now the Coalition have increased their odds of winning:

Coalition $1.33
Labor $3.00

I've traditionally not cared too strongly one way or the other. I always liked Bomber Kim, and Keating was a classic (definitely undervalued). Yet the social welfare policies proposed this time by the Labor party (particularly Medicare Old and the University Fee reduction) overwhelm all other considerations (I do like some of their tax proposals though - can't have everything I guess).

They must be defeated at all costs. If Labor win maybe I'll join that guy that tried to row for Indonesia. I might just see him on his way back. Let's hope we can hold back age discrimination for one more period of government.

Don't vote with your heart, vote with your head. Think through the implications of the parties policies (By the way, compulsory voting is pathetic. It gives a voice to the stupid, the ignorant, the lazy and leads to a dumbing down of political debate).

Heading for Disaster

2004-10-04T13:03:00.000+08:00

I don't often agree with Christian Kerr, but this time we seem to see eye to eye.

http://www.crikey.com.au/politics/2004/10/03-0004.html

Medicare Gold guarantees free, immediate health care for the over 75s.
Stuff you if you’re younger or sicker. This isn’t age before beauty. It’s age
before need. If you’re under 75 you’ll be dumped down the waiting list. Yes.
Even if you live in a marginal seat.

If you’re one of the 35 per cent or so of elderly Australians who have shelled out for private health insurance so you had quick access to medical treatment when you need it – and not all of these are silvertails, by any means – stuff you, too.

Howard may be on the nose, but looking at the platforms that the two parties are offering. If we choose Labor on Saturday this country is headed for disaster. The welfare state is going out of fashion fast (see what's happening in Europe at the moment - riots and protests as the governments cut back on the unaffordable).

Better a rat than a national disaster. Think about the policies, not the people.

Punters confused by the spin

2004-10-03T14:59:00.000+08:00

Latest Odds

Coalition $1.45
Labor $2.55

Bush $1.45
Kerry $2.60

My call. The Australian election is on a knife edge. These figures don't do justice to how close it is.

The US election is all over. Kerry got a bounce from his debating skills, but he threw away what small chance he had with his talk of 'Passing the global test'. Self-immolation. It's now been shown that you can win a debate and lose an election simultaneously.

Bribe fest continues

2004-10-01T14:09:00.000+08:00

As I predicted yesterday the Coaliation counter Labor's disastorous medical policy announcement with more bribes pitched at the aged.

I'm getting very cynical at this point.

Presidential Debate

2004-10-01T13:59:00.000+08:00

I listened to the debate with interest this morning.

Kerry was definitely the better speaker, and for the first hour I had him winning by a huge margin. Bush had me cringing at various points.

In the last 30 minutes it turned around completely. There were some huge blunders by Kerry and Bush articulated a clear message.

Better debater: Kerry
Better finish: Bush

Which image sticks in the mind? I'm not sure for the average American voter. I suspect the net impact on voting intentions is minimal.

Overall I'll rate it a draw. I think both sides will think their candidate won, and they both definitely appealed to their base. While Kerry was the better debater, he was also the one who made some very bad blunders which may yet come back to haunt him - stay tuned.

Getting more pessimistic

2004-09-30T11:02:00.000+08:00

This election is turning into a bribe fest. The last one was similar, but this one seems worse.

Labor's put out a terrible policy on health. The Coalition will counter with one in the next few days which will likely be just as bad.

Let's be clear...

1) Urgent medical care is already provided to all citizens (no-waiting lists).
2) Non-urgent medical care is a mix of public (waiting list) and private (jump the waiting list and get your choice of doctor).

Labor's policy (in a nutshell):

1) Extend non-urgent medical care to all seniors over 75 (They already get urgent care provided so it's only the non-urgent that is relevant).
2) Seniors can get the doctor of their choice (it's in their policy documents).

Labor is getting the government to effectively pay for Private Health insurance for all over 75's. For critical and non-critical medical care. Seniors will no longer need private health insurance.

One reasonable arguement is that this will reduce the cost of private health insurance to younger Australians. Yes, this is true. It will also reduce the cost of the 30% rebate to the government. Unfortunately it also means that an optimiser (like myself) no longer needs to take out private health insurance as the most likely scenario is that the bulk of your health care costs are when you are over 75.

The part that is not considered is that what will seniors do now that elective hospital procedures are free with no waiting list?

Answer: Increase their demand.

Who pays? Won't be the baby boomers. They will be retiring in the near future. Yes it's the small shrinking workforce we keep hearing about.

Labor's Pitch

2004-09-29T17:15:00.000+08:00

Big bounce today for Labor.

Labor $1.40
Coalition $2.70

Labor's big move is to offer to pay for all hospital care for over 75's, and to index the pension 4 times a year instead of twice. This has to be a huge vote winner. The indexation won't make much difference, but it sounds good if you're an older plebian.

The free hospital care has huge ramifications. I can't even begin to get my head around them in a couple of minutes.

My first reaction is no-one over 75 will need private insurance.

My second reaction is, this means I don't have to take out private health insurance today, as most of a persons health bills are in the last 5 years of their life and the average life expectancy is around 80 for someone born today.

My third reaction is, this is the death of private health insurance.

My fourth reaction is, this will actually reduce the costs to private health insurance companies (previously they couldn't filter out clients by age, but now older people will do the filtering themselves).

My fifth reaction is, maybe it's not the death of private insurance, but it certainly is an unprecendented change in the way it works.

My sixth reaction is, who is going to pay for this? Well now you need make no provision for your health costs for 50 years (see baby boomers). Then fall back on the tax-payer to cover all your needs. I guess the younger generation are going to have to pay for the excesses of the older generation. This is age discrimination at its worst.

Being human I know I'm going to fall into this very same trap. My grandkids can work hard to provide for me in my old age. I no longer have to. Thanks in advance to the kids of the future.

Senate Guide

2004-09-28T14:33:00.000+08:00

Here's my Senate guide.

Likely scenario:

Coalition 37 seats
Labor+Democrat+Green 37 seats

Undecided 2 seats.

(1) South Australia
To be fought out between
-Meg Lees
-Greens
-Family First

(2) Queensland
To be fought out between
-Democrat
-Labor
-Green
-Independent

This leads to some fascinating scenarios. The most likely though is that the government (assuming a coalition victory) will NOT be able to get legislation through without support from one of Labor, the Greens or the Democrats. This will put them at a disadvantage to the current parliament where they can still use the independent senators to get legislation past those three parties.

If Labor were to win the election they will have extreme difficulty in the Senate.

Either way it is going to be harder in the next sitting period than the current one for legislation to pass.

Strongest odds yet

2004-09-28T13:53:00.000+08:00

Howard $1.28
Latham $3.30

Bush $1.33
Kerry $3.00

The smart money's on the incumbents.

Let's rate the parties:

-Industrial Relations: Coalition (No-one could argue for Labor on this)

-Schools: Coalition

-Childcare: Labor

-Family Tax Benefits: Can't tell. Labor's policy document sucks, I read it numerous times and they went out of their way to make it unclear and leave out key bits of information.

-Health: Coalition (Labor only increasing the rebate on bulk billing consults is a mistake, the GP rebate is ridiculously low as it is, people that can't get bulk billed receive no benefit)

-Universities: Coalition (would be a disaster if Labor got in for the Unis)

-Economy: I'm tempted to say much of a muchness. Unfortunately for Labor they have a Creanite, and the Libs have Costello. No contest here. Crean is a Creanite. Drop Crean and I'll call it a wash.

-Foreign Policy: Coalition (Latham is a popularist)

Hmmm. I'm trying to think of something other than Child-care that I think Labor is better at. There must be something.

-Taxation: Labor (I like Labor's idea of raising the top rate, and allowing sole income earners to split their tax free threshhold. Both are needed) What I really want though is an increase in the GST rate.

Overally I'm afraid I have to give the win to the Coalition so far. Labor has 10 days to go, let's see if they can announce something that could help them get my vote.

Oddswatch

2004-09-27T13:09:00.000+08:00

The Coalition have jumped up in the betting after an election spending splurge by the PM on the weekend. Very effective wedge on the opposition. You can outspend the opposition and use the governments prior record to justify it.

The allocation of funds directly to the P&C's is an interesting idea. Quite funny really.

Coalition $1.33
Labor $3.00

Then in the US election (which I think is a foregone conclusion, the odds have finally moved in Bush's favour).

Bush $1.37
Kerry $2.85

US Election Wrap

2004-09-23T13:21:00.000+08:00

Bush is going to win.

Nothing more needs to be said. Kerry is a hopeless candidate, with his campaign exploding around him.

I guess they were right at the Republican convention.

"4 more years"

My interest in US politics now revolves around who the Democrats are going to pick in 2008. I hope it's Hillary. Hillary in 2008! I'm hoping it's not someone called Barak (which reminds me to much of a bear-man in the Belgariad - something I read when I was 10).

Perhaps Howard should have waited until after the US election in retrospect? I'm much less certain that he is going to be returned.

Latham v Costello

2004-09-23T13:19:00.000+08:00

Latham's calling out Costello for a debate.

He wants it at a public forum, and I'm not sure this is something Costello will agree to.

I want to see this debate on T.V. In fact I'd pay money to see it.

Senate Look

2004-09-23T13:13:00.000+08:00

I've been looking at the recent polls and the Senate.

I think the recent warnings from the Greens are a bit over the top. I don't think there is any real chance of the Conservatives gaining control of the upper house. I'm guessing there will be 33-35 Conservative senators after the election. If anything they might even lose ground on where they stand at the moment.

The other thing to consider is that a double dissolution would be a disaster for the Democrats. It's quite possible they will be wiped out if that were to occur. No incentive for this that I can see.

If the Conservatives have 36-38 seats after the election then it's a likelihood (DD). If they have 35 or less I don't see anything in it for Labor. I'm guessing they won't have enough seats.

I know the betting markets still have the Coalition favourites, but I have a funny feeling Labor my get in.

I'm not so sure.

2004-09-22T17:06:00.000+08:00

I'm not so sure about a Coalition victory now. After reading the poll-bludgers guide something didn't add up. A very comprehensive guide to the seats, but the totals are completely out of date. I checked the count and he's tricking me into thinking he's predicting a Coalition victory, when he's actually predicting a Labor one. Update your count!

We may yet see a Labor win with a Coalition / Independent controlled upperhouse. That will lead to a double dissolution without a doubt. Double dissolutions favour the minor parties (lower threshold needed) so they have every incentive to be complicit in blocking supply.

I don't think it would necessarily happen early in the next term, but it would be almost certain to happen towards the end of it. Imagine all the triggers that could be ready to be voted on by a joint sitting.

Quite scary really. We haven't seen such momentous times since the 70's.

Money must be pouring in.

2004-09-22T11:19:00.000+08:00

In the last 2 hours the odds have moved even further

Coalition $2.70
Labor $1.40

This is a strong positive move for Labor.

On a side note, why is it that the Labor party in Australia uses US spelling, while the Labour party in the UK does not? I don't know the answer, but personally I dislike US spelling in all its forms. I think Labor should rename themselves in celebration of victory if they defy the odds.

Labor Bounce

2004-09-22T07:39:00.000+08:00

After recording the worst result since Latham took over the leadership, Labor's recovered slightly to

Coalition $1.33
Labor $3.00

There was a series of positive polls yesterday for Labor, and this seems to have carried through to the betting market. Whoever wins, the next parliamentary term will be interesting.

Oil supplies

2004-09-20T19:27:00.000+08:00

According to the CIA world fact book Australia has enough proved oil reserves to fuel the entire world for only 48 days if current consumption continues.

Barrels used per day in the world: 75 million.
Australia's reserves: 3.664 billion

Are the CIA figures accurate?

If they are then we could continue operating on current levels of oil use for 13,521 days (37 years). Over time this will become more expensive to extract (easy pickings being used up).

Either we find new energy sources (I'm a big fan of renewables) or we find new oil deposits. Australia will use up its known sources in 14 years at the current rate.

New electoral information

2004-09-20T17:03:00.000+08:00

The odds of Labor winning have dropped to their lowest level since 1st Dec 2003. This was when Latham took over the leadership from the hopeless Simon Crean. Latham performed well until his high point on the 14th June 2004, but has seen a steady fall since.

Labor is now back to where they started.

Source: Centrebet odds.

Senate information.
I know less about the Senate, but it does appear certain that the Coalition will improve their senate position from their existing 32 (I think it's 32) senators. The likely result is between 35 and 38 senators.

The interesting question is whether they will get up to 38 (which is half the senate). They would then be able to pass legislation with just 1 vote from an independent.

We're in for a dramatic next parliamentary term. If the Liberals win they will have a far easier time getting reforms through than they have ever had before.

If Labor wins it was argued tonight on Radio National's Australia Talks Back that we will be heading to a double dissolution. It was a convincing argument.

Either way dramatic.

Finally prepared to make the call

2004-09-20T13:51:00.000+08:00

With the odds firming for a returned Howard victory:

Coalition: $1.28
Labor $3.30

I'm finally prepared to make this my call. So it's official, I believe the incumbents will be returned in the US and Australia.

Now my interest turns to the Senate. More research is required....

Swing to the Incumbents

2004-09-16T07:53:00.000+08:00

The latest betting odds:

Howard $1.33
Latham $3.00

Bush $1.40
Kerry $2.70

Kerry's had no momentum at all since we started watching the odds. Latham had a bounce after the debate, but it's now almost back to where it was beforehand.

Since I started tracking these odds a couple of weeks ago, the overall movement has been bad for the challengers.

To repeat myself. I'm calling a certain Bush victory, but I'm yet to call the Australian election. The events this week with Rathergate and the fake memos just keeps hurting Kerry, as it makes people more skeptical about all of the attacks on Bush's record (even if some of them are true).

I heard some interesting theories this week (not that I subscribe to them). One interesting one was that the fake memos were put out by Clinton supporters. The idea being to sabbotage Kerry's campaign which will help get Hillary on the ticket in 2008 (which isn't going to happen if Kerry wins this time). Sounds a bit too far fetched, but I'm pro Hillary 2008 so why not....?

I wonder who actually did supply the memos?

Latham v Costello

2004-09-13T17:21:00.000+08:00

Latham wants a tag-team debate with Costello and Howard (good line).
Costello wants to debate Labor's tax package with him.

Howard's people won't want to raise Costello's profile. Latham's people know that Costello is a far better debater than Howard and going up against him is likely suicidal. Costello would love to have a go, which will help cement in people's minds he's the next Coalition leader, as opposed to those other possibilities like Abbott and Nelson.

Still with what looks like to be a Howard victory coming, maybe Labor needs to throw a wildcard into the mix.

I fear it won't happen but I'd pay to see it.

Oddswatch

2004-09-13T10:06:00.000+08:00

We're now almost back to the odds a week ago before the Jakarta bombing.

Colaition $1.40
Labor $2.70

While the US presidential odds have moved in Bush's favour.

Bush $1.47
Kerry $2.50

I still disagree, I think Bush is more of a certainty to win than Howard.

I think Howard clearly won the first 30 minutes last night, and Latham clearly won the last 30 minutes. I listened to the debate on Radio, so I didn't get the visual cues though. I just focused on the arguments.

One of the interviewers was inept in his questioning, the one that asked Latham about being a liar by his own definition. That was a very sloppy question, and shows that commentator wouldn't make much of a politician.

Trend Continues

2004-09-10T11:01:00.000+08:00

Coalition $1.30
Labor $3.20

Not looking good for a bidding war for votes either.

I seriously doubt this was timed to coincide with our elections, which were only announced a couple of weeks ago. These types of operations don't just occur overnight.

Both parties calling the campaign to a halt (cynics view - they can focus now on the 'debate' on Sunday).

Back to politics:
John Anderson called the Greens watermelons, a haven for pinkos. Greens cry cucumber! Thing is, I see no evidence that the deputy PM was wrong.

Updated Odds

2004-09-09T18:49:00.000+08:00

Coalition $1.33
Labor $3

With today's bombing in Jakarta Labor's odds have jumped out dramatically.
Who gets hurt by this? Indonesians do, civilians and the economy.

With the debate (although it doesn't sound like it's actually going to be a debate to me, thanks to Liberal party strategists) coming up on Sunday we're bound to have more questions on National security than we would have had otherwise.

This plays into the current governments strength.

I've been looking through the Labor tax release policy and it has some good ideas in it. I was hoping that the Libs would be forced to counter with a better offer. Unfortunately this event might change the dynamics of the election.