Wednesday, August 04, 2004

Statistical fudge

Democrat Senator Andrew Murray did manage an extraordinary (his word) contradiction though later in his speech.

The CIE Centre for International Economics estimated the gain to Australia from the FTA to be in the order of 2 billion per year which falls within the bounds of the standing error for economic modelling and is thus insignificant (seems like a perfectly reasonable argument).

Then less than one minute later he makes the argument that our negotiaters have done a bad job because the NPV of the FTA over the entire deal is worth 600 thousand more for the US than Australia.

Errr didn't you just point out something to do with statistical significance?

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