Monday, September 20, 2004

New electoral information

The odds of Labor winning have dropped to their lowest level since 1st Dec 2003. This was when Latham took over the leadership from the hopeless Simon Crean. Latham performed well until his high point on the 14th June 2004, but has seen a steady fall since.

Labor is now back to where they started.

Source: Centrebet odds.

Senate information.
I know less about the Senate, but it does appear certain that the Coalition will improve their senate position from their existing 32 (I think it's 32) senators. The likely result is between 35 and 38 senators.

The interesting question is whether they will get up to 38 (which is half the senate). They would then be able to pass legislation with just 1 vote from an independent.

We're in for a dramatic next parliamentary term. If the Liberals win they will have a far easier time getting reforms through than they have ever had before.

If Labor wins it was argued tonight on Radio National's Australia Talks Back that we will be heading to a double dissolution. It was a convincing argument.

Either way dramatic.

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