Victorian Senate Analysis

How the ALP gave away control of the senate...

Here is a look at the Senate race in Victoria.
The Libs take 3 seats, Labor 2, with the last seat up for grabs.

Assumptions:

• Everyone votes above the line (using the group voting tickets)
• Current trends continue in the postal votes
• Ignoring an insignificant 0.0101 quotas from a couple of independents

The final 5 parties are (in order):

1) The Greens (0.6675 quotas)
2) ALP (0.5936 quotas)
3) Family First (0.3697 quotas)
4) DLP - Democratic Labor Party (0.2132 quotas)
5) Democrats (0.1457 quotas)

The Democrats are eliminated and their quota is redistributed to the top surviving party on their group voting ticket. They had also collected Group S independents who similarly get redistributed.

• Democrat preferences go to Family First (0.1297 quotas).
• Group S independents go to the Greens (0.016 quotas).
  

New Standings:
1) The Greens (0.6835 quotas)
2) ALP (0.5936 quotas)
3) Family First (0.4994 quotas)
4) DLP - Democratic Labor Party (0.2132 quotas)

The DLP is eliminated and their quota is redistributed. They had picked up the Libs / Nationals.

• DLP preferences go to Family First (0.1297 quotas)
• Liberal / National preferences go to Family First (0.0835 quotas)
  

New Standings:
1) Family First (0.7126 quotas)
2) The Greens (0.6835 quotas)
3) ALP (0.5936 quotas)

The ALP is eliminated and their quota is redistributed.

They had picked up the Ex-Service, Service & Veterans Party.

• ALP preferences go to Family First (0.5701 quotas)
• Ex-Service, Service & Veterans Party preferences go to Family First (0.0235 quotas)

Final Standings:
1) Family First (1.3062 quotas)
2) The Greens (0.6835 quotas)

Without both the Democrats and the DLP combined Family First would have been sitting in 3rd place with three to go and eliminated.

It was ALP preferences that decided the final result.

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2004/guide/gtv_vic_i_10.htm

They put Family First ahead of the Greens. If they had of reversed the order then the conservatives would not have control of the Senate.

Who ended up sending their preferences to Family First:

CDP Christian Party
Liberal/Nationals
One Nation
Liberals for forests
Non-Custodial Parents Party
Ex-Service, Service & Veterans Party
The Aged and Disability Pensioners Party
The Progressives (Meg Lees)
Democrats
DLP - Democratic Labor Party
Australian Labor Party

They needed the preferences of all of the last 3 parties to get in.

Family First get a whopping 0.57 of a quota from ALP voters. It's also worth pointing out that the Greens preferenced the ALP above Family First. They put Steve Fielding #55. The ALP didn't return the favour (Steve Fielding #8).

Too clever by half?