Two Years Later...
It's interseting to see that two years ago tomorrow I posted about oil supplies.http://domitar.blogspot.com/2004/09/oil-supplies.html
Back then according to the CIA we (the world) had enough for 37 years. Today two years later the CIA estimate we have enough for 46 years. I'm sad to see that Australian figures haven't been updated.
While I know that countries tend to overestimate their supplies (particularly OPEC countries who's production quota is tied to their proved reserves) it's still an interesting trend.
Certainly it's indisputable that it is an extinguishable resource so it is of interest, but unless you're an insider there is really no way to know the true figures.
This year we've seen a huge jump in the price of oil, but recently it's been trending the other way. Supply and demand as I see it. With the price jumping significantly production appears to have jumped leading to an oversupply at the current high price. Economics 101 but it I always stick with occam's razor where I can.
Still the only thing we can do is sit back and watch these numbers over time. There's too much money involved in energy for anyone not in the industry to be able to believe anything either side of the various energy debates puts forward without many giant teaspoons of salt.
Back then according to the CIA we (the world) had enough for 37 years. Today two years later the CIA estimate we have enough for 46 years. I'm sad to see that Australian figures haven't been updated.
While I know that countries tend to overestimate their supplies (particularly OPEC countries who's production quota is tied to their proved reserves) it's still an interesting trend.
Certainly it's indisputable that it is an extinguishable resource so it is of interest, but unless you're an insider there is really no way to know the true figures.
This year we've seen a huge jump in the price of oil, but recently it's been trending the other way. Supply and demand as I see it. With the price jumping significantly production appears to have jumped leading to an oversupply at the current high price. Economics 101 but it I always stick with occam's razor where I can.
Still the only thing we can do is sit back and watch these numbers over time. There's too much money involved in energy for anyone not in the industry to be able to believe anything either side of the various energy debates puts forward without many giant teaspoons of salt.
1 Comments:
Thanks for the links.
I fully acknowledge this is an area I am not a specialist on. I dabble, but that's about it.
My main point was that if I record these numbers now I'll have something to compare it to in the future.
It will be very interesting to see which way things trend over time.
By the way, I booked to convert my 3.8L Holden to gas 2 days after the Federal Government announced the $2,000 rebate.
I'm still waiting...
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