My Election Posting
It's a tradition at the KingDom that I post my election musings.
To be honest I'm a bit apathetic about the whole thing (for the first time in a long time) as the two major parties are identical.
Let's survey the field:
1) Industrial relations - The Coalition watered down policy (read: fairness test) makes their policy pretty much identical to the Labor party. No difference here - heck if anything the Coalition's policy is weaker for employers yet there is no way that either side wants you to believe that.
2) The Economy - Everybody is a fiscal conservative these days. Labor wouldn't dare run deficit budgets (not that economically they are necessarily a bad thing - it just depends what you are using them for!). As I posted at the time of the last election the whole interest rate thing is much ado about nothing and it continues to be such. Howard's overemphasised unprovable assertion (I think that's what I called it in 2004) comes back to haunt him this time around.
3) Health - Both sides equally boring. At least this time Labor is not touting that the tax-payer is going to pay for private health insurance for everybody over 65. The worst policy ever and the reason they deserved to lose that last election.
4) Education - Both sides equally boring, although I do know of some in the higher education sector who fear a Labor government (those old enough to remember Dawkins anyway).
5) The War - Both sides get it. Labor pretends that they are enti-war but the truth is their policy amounts to withdrawing combat troops from Iraq (where they are not actually performing any combat at the moment) and redeploying them to Afghanistan where they may well actually be in combat. Their policy also involves leaving the vast bulk of our forces in Iraq and if anything increasing the deployment in the middle east theatre. That's not anti-war by my books and I can support them on this (p.s. I laugh at the left who fall for Labor's rhetoric).
Now I'm a one issue voter: The War - do they get it? Both sides do (at least I believe Rudd does, though I'm not necessarily convinced all of his more junior colleagues do). So who do I vote for?
Well I live in a safe Liberal seat (62% two party preferred last time) so my vote doesn't really matter. The only vote I have that matters is my Senate vote. This reminds me, I must look up the senate preference deals to work out how to minimise the greens chances of getting the 6th WA senate seat (though sadly it's normal for them to pick it up so even that will be in vain).
So if I can't personally make a difference then who do I want to win?
Well last time the choice was easy. Only die-hards and the weak-minded wanted Latham to win. Dumping Beazley was a Labor disaster then, this time dumping Beazley won't be. This time Rudd offers a reasonable alternative (heck I advocated on this blog a Rudd-Gillard team years before it ever happened).
While my personal choice for years (as I've said many times on this blog) has always been Costello, I think sadly it may be one of the great tragedies in life that he never leads this nation. The alternative is acceptable. Rudd is a Tony Blair like figure and I am optimistic about the future under either scenario.
Predictions:
Coalition wins and John Howard loses his seat (nah that's just me dreaming again).
The betting markets predict Labor has a 78% chance of winning. Hard to argue with the market.
To be honest I'm a bit apathetic about the whole thing (for the first time in a long time) as the two major parties are identical.
Let's survey the field:
1) Industrial relations - The Coalition watered down policy (read: fairness test) makes their policy pretty much identical to the Labor party. No difference here - heck if anything the Coalition's policy is weaker for employers yet there is no way that either side wants you to believe that.
2) The Economy - Everybody is a fiscal conservative these days. Labor wouldn't dare run deficit budgets (not that economically they are necessarily a bad thing - it just depends what you are using them for!). As I posted at the time of the last election the whole interest rate thing is much ado about nothing and it continues to be such. Howard's overemphasised unprovable assertion (I think that's what I called it in 2004) comes back to haunt him this time around.
3) Health - Both sides equally boring. At least this time Labor is not touting that the tax-payer is going to pay for private health insurance for everybody over 65. The worst policy ever and the reason they deserved to lose that last election.
4) Education - Both sides equally boring, although I do know of some in the higher education sector who fear a Labor government (those old enough to remember Dawkins anyway).
5) The War - Both sides get it. Labor pretends that they are enti-war but the truth is their policy amounts to withdrawing combat troops from Iraq (where they are not actually performing any combat at the moment) and redeploying them to Afghanistan where they may well actually be in combat. Their policy also involves leaving the vast bulk of our forces in Iraq and if anything increasing the deployment in the middle east theatre. That's not anti-war by my books and I can support them on this (p.s. I laugh at the left who fall for Labor's rhetoric).
Now I'm a one issue voter: The War - do they get it? Both sides do (at least I believe Rudd does, though I'm not necessarily convinced all of his more junior colleagues do). So who do I vote for?
Well I live in a safe Liberal seat (62% two party preferred last time) so my vote doesn't really matter. The only vote I have that matters is my Senate vote. This reminds me, I must look up the senate preference deals to work out how to minimise the greens chances of getting the 6th WA senate seat (though sadly it's normal for them to pick it up so even that will be in vain).
So if I can't personally make a difference then who do I want to win?
Well last time the choice was easy. Only die-hards and the weak-minded wanted Latham to win. Dumping Beazley was a Labor disaster then, this time dumping Beazley won't be. This time Rudd offers a reasonable alternative (heck I advocated on this blog a Rudd-Gillard team years before it ever happened).
While my personal choice for years (as I've said many times on this blog) has always been Costello, I think sadly it may be one of the great tragedies in life that he never leads this nation. The alternative is acceptable. Rudd is a Tony Blair like figure and I am optimistic about the future under either scenario.
Predictions:
Coalition wins and John Howard loses his seat (nah that's just me dreaming again).
The betting markets predict Labor has a 78% chance of winning. Hard to argue with the market.
Labels: Australian Election
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