S.A.S. wrap

Well something changed somewhere along the line that I didn't know about. Something about a tie-breaker to do with a purple rock. This is a change from series one where it was based on number of accumulated votes against.

Anyway Amber won the immunity and as I predicted in that scenario Rupert goes home. Though I did not pick Jenna voting against Rupert which I think was just stupid.

If I was Rupert I would have been busy explaining to Jenna the laws of probability.

If she votes for Rupert.
That leaves 3 people left. If Rob or Amber win the immunity she goes home with nothing. Probability of her winning immunity = 30%

Probability of her winning the game = 30%


If she votes for Rob.
Probability of her not picking the stone and making the final three = 66%

3 People left:

Now if she survies this it depends on who was eliminated.

Scenario 1)
50% Chance Rupert goes home.
If so that leaves us with Jenna, Rob and Amber. Amber has a 30% chance of surviving that (as above).

Scenario 2)
50% Chance Rob goes home.
In this case this leaves us with Amber, Rupert and Jenna.

Probability of winning the immunity challenge
Amber : 30%
Rupert : 40%
Jenna : 30%

Amber will pick Jenna (Rupert is popular).
Rupert - I'm not sure who he would pick let's say 50% chance of either Amber or Jenna.
Probability of Jenna going to the final two in this scneario = 30% + 0.5 * 40% + 30% = 80%.

Probability of Jenna going to the final two if she goes for the rock:

0.66(0.5*0.3+0.5*0.8) = 36.3%

*Qualification: If Rupert wouldn't have picked Jenna then this drops to 30% (Interesting)

*Also note that just coming second wins you 100k, so perhaps we should change the goal to be to come in the final two.

Voting Rupert off : Probably a bad move.