US Mid-term Elections Update
Much more trading on the betting floor than there was just 8 days ago (see how much the spread has tightened).
GOP Senate Control
Bid 82.7
Ask 83.0
GOP House Control
Bid 57.2
Ask 57.9
With regards to the spread in the Senate note that the current spread is inside the previous spread, thus all you can conclude is that the amount of trading has increased.
In the house the buy price is now greater than the previous ask price so there is a definite shift towards the market believing in a greater likelihood of the GOP retaining control.
Just two weeks ago the market thought the odds of the Republicans losing the House was around 60%. Now it's down to around 43%, things are trending in the GOP's favour at the moment.
Will it continue? I don't know. But the more Chavez and Ahmadinejad talk the higher the GOP's numbers will go. Karl Rove must must be rubbing his hands with glee when these two stand up at the UN.
GOP Senate Control
Bid 82.7
Ask 83.0
GOP House Control
Bid 57.2
Ask 57.9
With regards to the spread in the Senate note that the current spread is inside the previous spread, thus all you can conclude is that the amount of trading has increased.
In the house the buy price is now greater than the previous ask price so there is a definite shift towards the market believing in a greater likelihood of the GOP retaining control.
Just two weeks ago the market thought the odds of the Republicans losing the House was around 60%. Now it's down to around 43%, things are trending in the GOP's favour at the moment.
Will it continue? I don't know. But the more Chavez and Ahmadinejad talk the higher the GOP's numbers will go. Karl Rove must must be rubbing his hands with glee when these two stand up at the UN.
2 Comments:
Umm reading the analysis you linked basically says diplomacy isn't going to work regardless of who is in power.
According to that analysis they want war. Avoiding it isn't an option, that's their goal.
I've had a chance to do some further reading (through your link)and here's the summary:
Mad Hatter regime in Tehran believes in the coming of the 12th Imam.
Regime believes nuclear annhilation will accelerate the return of the 12th Imam.
Regime currently trying to develop nukes.
Woohoo. Sounds just great.
There are plenty of moderate forces in Iran who presumably don't want to be exterminated in a nuclear war.
Unfortunately these people aren't in power and they aren't the people that you would be negotiating with. Currently the west is negotiating with a death cult.
Party pooper for my blog Tzar.
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