Monday, October 11, 2004

The Big Assertion

King Domitar is an economist, so hopefully I know what I'm talking about here for a change.

Quote: "Interest rates will always be higher under a Labor government than under a Coalition one"

You can NOT call this statement a lie because it is impossible to disprove.

A better criticism would be "An over-emphasised unproven assertion".

Historical evidence is clouded by the different economic conditions, but more importantly by the increasing globalisation of capital markets (which has moved tremendously in the last 20 years thanks to technology).

Everyone knows by now that governments only have a marginal effect on interest rates when compared to global market forces for capital. That does not mean they have no effect at the margin. They can create an environment where business invests rather than returning capital to their shareholders (which would put upward pressure on interest rates).

So the statement is not a lie.

It is an unproven assertion, you can accept it, you can choose not to, or you can argue your own case knowing you will never be able to prove your case either. You can't call it a lie.

Person 1 "God / Allah / Vishnu created the world"
Person 2 "You LIE!"

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