Psephology
The US senate changed hands, marking my first predictions error since blogging began. I still stand by my record - predicting both the Howard increased margin of victory in 2004 as well as the Bush victory in 2004. The (at the time) bold prediction of an increase in Howard's majority is still my major success.
Tzar raises an interesting point on the voting margins in the states. Regarding Senate percentages:
In 2000 both parties got 48% and were split 50/50.
In 2002 Republicans had 51 seats with 51% of the Senate vote.
In 2004 Republicans had 55 seats with 45% of the Senate vote.
In 2006 Republicans have 49 seats.
It appears that 2004 was the outlier. Blue states in that year have gone more deeply blue. However the Republicans won 5 democratic seats where the sitting Democrat retired. This appears to have been the key factor accounting for the previous senate makeup and I'm guessing we now see a much more realistic version of how divided the states actually are.
Tzar raises an interesting point on the voting margins in the states. Regarding Senate percentages:
In 2000 both parties got 48% and were split 50/50.
In 2002 Republicans had 51 seats with 51% of the Senate vote.
In 2004 Republicans had 55 seats with 45% of the Senate vote.
In 2006 Republicans have 49 seats.
It appears that 2004 was the outlier. Blue states in that year have gone more deeply blue. However the Republicans won 5 democratic seats where the sitting Democrat retired. This appears to have been the key factor accounting for the previous senate makeup and I'm guessing we now see a much more realistic version of how divided the states actually are.
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