US Election

After my recent success calling a Howard win with an increased majority (though I did underestimate the size of the increase), it's time to see if I can repeat my performance with the US Federal election.

It's a hard one, a few months ago I called Bush to win in a landslide. I'm now thinking it will still be a Bush victory, but not as convincingly as I previously thought.

I previously thought Florida would stay Republican, but I'm now thinking Florida might switch, yet Bush will still win.

As for who I want to win. Well it probably doesn't matter that much. In fact I think it would be quite funny for Kerry to win, and watch just how long it will take for the rest of the world to realise it doesn't make any difference. Republicans and Democrats both think America first.

Still, I have argued before, Hillary's best chance is if Kerry loses, so I guess that would be my preference. Hillary in 2008.

Red States Blue States

Let's have a look at the Federal Election results:

Overall Two Party Preferred Basis:

Coalition 52.7%
Labor 47.3%

Now State by State Seats:

NSW C-27 L- 20
VIC C-18 L - 19
QLD C-21 L - 6
WA C-10 L - 4
SA C-7 L - 2
TAS C-2 L-3
ACT C-0 L-2
NT C-1 L - 1

Undecided 4

Combining the Results in Qld, WA, and SA (and making some predictions on the close seats):
Coalition 39
Labor 14

That's a pretty hefty margin that Labor has to be able to make up elsewhere in the country.