Swing to the Incumbents

The latest betting odds:

Howard $1.33
Latham $3.00

Bush $1.40
Kerry $2.70

Kerry's had no momentum at all since we started watching the odds. Latham had a bounce after the debate, but it's now almost back to where it was beforehand.

Since I started tracking these odds a couple of weeks ago, the overall movement has been bad for the challengers.

To repeat myself. I'm calling a certain Bush victory, but I'm yet to call the Australian election. The events this week with Rathergate and the fake memos just keeps hurting Kerry, as it makes people more skeptical about all of the attacks on Bush's record (even if some of them are true).

I heard some interesting theories this week (not that I subscribe to them). One interesting one was that the fake memos were put out by Clinton supporters. The idea being to sabbotage Kerry's campaign which will help get Hillary on the ticket in 2008 (which isn't going to happen if Kerry wins this time). Sounds a bit too far fetched, but I'm pro Hillary 2008 so why not....?

I wonder who actually did supply the memos?

Latham v Costello

Latham wants a tag-team debate with Costello and Howard (good line).
Costello wants to debate Labor's tax package with him.

Howard's people won't want to raise Costello's profile. Latham's people know that Costello is a far better debater than Howard and going up against him is likely suicidal. Costello would love to have a go, which will help cement in people's minds he's the next Coalition leader, as opposed to those other possibilities like Abbott and Nelson.

Still with what looks like to be a Howard victory coming, maybe Labor needs to throw a wildcard into the mix.

I fear it won't happen but I'd pay to see it.

Oddswatch

We're now almost back to the odds a week ago before the Jakarta bombing.

Colaition $1.40
Labor $2.70

While the US presidential odds have moved in Bush's favour.

Bush $1.47
Kerry $2.50

I still disagree, I think Bush is more of a certainty to win than Howard.

I think Howard clearly won the first 30 minutes last night, and Latham clearly won the last 30 minutes. I listened to the debate on Radio, so I didn't get the visual cues though. I just focused on the arguments.

One of the interviewers was inept in his questioning, the one that asked Latham about being a liar by his own definition. That was a very sloppy question, and shows that commentator wouldn't make much of a politician.