Psephology

The US senate changed hands, marking my first predictions error since blogging began. I still stand by my record - predicting both the Howard increased margin of victory in 2004 as well as the Bush victory in 2004. The (at the time) bold prediction of an increase in Howard's majority is still my major success.

Tzar raises an interesting point on the voting margins in the states. Regarding Senate percentages:

In 2000 both parties got 48% and were split 50/50.

In 2002 Republicans had 51 seats with 51% of the Senate vote.

In 2004 Republicans had 55 seats with 45% of the Senate vote.

In 2006 Republicans have 49 seats.

It appears that 2004 was the outlier. Blue states in that year have gone more deeply blue. However the Republicans won 5 democratic seats where the sitting Democrat retired. This appears to have been the key factor accounting for the previous senate makeup and I'm guessing we now see a much more realistic version of how divided the states actually are.

Senate Live

The networks haven't called it yet but looking at the House the networks are already calling a Democrat victory. Now we'll have to see how close I am on the numbers (I picked 229).

Senate Update:

5 Weeks ago I wrote:

I still believe the Senate comes down to 4 races. If the Democrats can pick up 3 of them they can take control.

Missouri: Dead heat
Tennessee: Dead heat
Virginia: Leaning Republican
New Jersey: Leaning Democrat

Well the Dem's have won Missouri and New Jersey. They lost Tennesee, but Virginia looks to be the decider. Dead even in Virginia. It looks like control will come down to this state. Expect lawyers!

Election Predictions

As always I make my election predictions public in advance. This time I am predicting a Republican Senate with 51 seats (Lieberman will win as an independent - but he'll always be a Democrat) and a Democratic House of 229 seats.

I was listening to TWIT (This week in technology) and it made me appreciate the simplicity of the Australian electoral system. Americans are beginning to miss out on the joy of the pencil and democracy. In some things technology is not the answer.

The Democrats will not impeach the president, but they will start hearings into the pre-war intelligence. The Democrats will also act responsibly in the congress. An interesting comment I heard the other day "Give them a taste of power and they will want more, they won't do anything stupid that would jeopardize their chances in 2008".