FTA debate

I'm not sure which way it's heading now.

The line the government is running is that Labor has now backed away from its original position which would have damaged patent law. Abott handled this well yesterday, and continues to do so. The PM did a better job in question time today than his nervous answers yesterday.

So while the line is cogent enough, I guess the question is will the media run with it? If they do the government is on a winner, if they don't the opposition is.

Hard to pick which way this will go.

Either way the FTA is going ahead, just a matter of time.

FTA Arguments

My initial thoughts was that this argument over the FTA regarding the addition of a provision regarding patents could potentially hurt the government. At face value it seemed like the government was refusing to give in to a relatively minor amendment in the scheme of things.

After listening to question time today, I understand the issues slightly better, though not enough to yet comment knowledgeably on it.

What I can say, is that it is beginning to sound like the government is on a winner. Tony Abbott was having great fun at Labor's expense, overcoming Labor's arguments quite easily. Howard seemed less confident, but given time it sounds like this issue might swing in the government's favour.

Now as I said I don't know enough yet to take a position on this, this is just my initial impressions on the strengths of the arguments.

Remember: You are entitled to an informed opinion.
(You are not entitled to an uninformed position, so don't pretend that you are)

Pessimism Overstated

I guess I shouldn't be too quick to change my view.

On further reflection the FTA will go ahead, it's just that now it's not going to happen until after the election. Until the election it will be used as a stick to whack the other side with. The sides are in their corners now and neither is going to blink.

Thought: Howard can defer the election until next year. From Howard's perspective would it be worth holding off the election until after Jan 1 2005, when the deal is due to come into force? Then he could truly bash Labor with it. For him this would have the added bonus of making Howard Australia's second longest serving Prime Minister (passing Bob Hawke in December).

You heard it here first. (NB: The problem with this theory is that interest rates are likely to rise)

Statistical fudge

Democrat Senator Andrew Murray did manage an extraordinary (his word) contradiction though later in his speech.

The CIE Centre for International Economics estimated the gain to Australia from the FTA to be in the order of 2 billion per year which falls within the bounds of the standing error for economic modelling and is thus insignificant (seems like a perfectly reasonable argument).

Then less than one minute later he makes the argument that our negotiaters have done a bad job because the NPV of the FTA over the entire deal is worth 600 thousand more for the US than Australia.

Errr didn't you just point out something to do with statistical significance?

Peter Russell Clarke would have been proud.

I never imagined I'd hear the Australian Democrats having this sort of go at the leader of the US Democrats.

Senator Andrew Murray of the Democrats this morning agreeing with my cheese analogy.

"John Kerry with that extraordinary salute. I mean he just looked like a Jerk."

It's on record in the Australian Parliament. It's in the Hansard.

Trade Joy

Well I guess I should have seen it coming....but I didn't.

The FTA now is being used by both sides as a political tool to bash the other side with.

Now I'm pessimistic. Once political capital is invested it becomes impossible to move.

Not happy with both sides on this one.

Parliament

Parliament resumes today, and all we get is the Senate on the radio?
The Senate is incredibly boring in comparison to the House of Reps.

Let's face it, the best performers on both sides sit in the lower house.

At least it looks like the FTA will be passed, although I never doubted this. Political suicide for Labor to oppose it.

The culture fascists will of course kick up a fuss. Hopefully our protectionist cultural ambassadors will have another one of their protests where they get their gear off. This always results in rational debate, or at least an opening of eyes.

Disclosure notice: I'm an economic rationalist, and a social centrist.

Hu and Pooty (Version 2)

I heard on the radio that a watered down version of the original proposal for sanctions against the Sudan (for non-compliance) has been passed (removing the explicit word sactions from the text).

Was this the great multilateralist French, demonised by many for being weak? No, of course not. The French are not weak. The French are underestimated and misunderstood. Too many people believe the rightwing stereotype created about them.

The French are in fact one of the most influencial and skilled nations in existence (No-one complains when the French uni-laterally send troops into tin-pot african countries). The French never wanted an invasion of Iraq (they had signed contracts for cheap oil for years to come and were owed significant sums of money by Sadam), but in the Sudan they don't have any signifcant interest.

So who is opposing sanctions on the Sudan? It's Pooty and Hu. Russia sells MIG's to the Sudan, and China has oil interests there.

Self interest, not the common good drives the UN. But remember everyone, we must only wait till we have the legal authority before we do anything. After all it's only Africans, it's far more important we don't do anything illegal.

Doh Spoiled It (Version 2)

This one is the easy post to retype.

I posted last week about how good Kerry's opening statement sounded 'I'm John Kerry and I'm reporting for duty'. I was listening on the radio, and it sounded great.

What I didn't know was that he stuffed it up completely with a Sailor-Boy salute.

Ahhh, too much cheese! Hopefully for the Democrats no-one was watching the broadcast.

Blogging Resumes

Not happy Blog!

(If I find some time I'll retype the two missing posts)

Where the heck is the text of my posts blogger?

Pooty and HU

Doh spoiled it