S.A.S Prediction

I have no time to write a recap tonight, but let's make a prediction before Monday.

4 Left, 2 groups of two.

Let's look at the past voting history.
Rob - Zero votes against
Amber - 6 Votes against
Jenna - Tom put a vote on her tonight (she had 2 in the first episode as well, but Rob & Amber don't know that)
Rupert - Alicia put a vote on him.

If the immunity is won by Jenna or Rupert then Amber goes home.
If the immunity is won by Amber, then Rupert or Jenna goes home (probably Rupert).
If the immunity is won by Rob, then IF he is smart (big if) he will hand the idol to Amber and vote out Rupert or Jenna.
If the immunity is won by Rob, and if he is not smart then he will keep it and Amber will go home.

Although there is supposed to be a 'big shock'. So one of the couples decides to split? Smart thing for Rupert or Jenna to do if Rob or Amber win the idol, not smart if they win. Maybe Rupert or Jenna win the idol and then Rob jumps off Amber's sinking ship. In reality it makes no difference but they might play it up to be a big shock.

So that's my prediction.

Interesting Theory

The CIS produced this executive summary on Women, Fertility and HECS.

Professional married women have enough children to keep the population steady, it is the professional unmarried women who are bringing the average down. University educated women appear less willing to marry someone without an education level equal to their own than men do. Basically these women are choosing from the small fish tank (the ratio of educated women to men is >1 and rising).

Also when you consider that the educated men are less educationally restricted when it comes to choosing a life partner, the educated man tank is shrunk even more.

My theory: Men, regardless of eductaion, all look for the same thing in a partner. They see some nice legs and they're in love. Women think too much.

Rain, yes that would be right

This has to be one of the driest years on record for Perth - we've had no rains for weeks and we're nearly into winter believe it or not. So out of all the possible days, the rains would finally come today, the day I'm having the tiles laid on my roof.

Assuming the roof doesn't collapse, at least I'll have a water bed to sleep in tonight.

Car Plants

It is worth noting that an analyst for KPMG has pointed out that if we lose one of the four car manufacturers in Australia then we will lose the necessary economies of scale in the auto parts sub-components industry for Australia to remain globally competitive.

Food for thought, but it still feels like a toddler trying to hold back the tide with a toy shovel. I don't think there is any amount of money the government can offer to change the long-term decisions in the Daimler-Chrylser boardroom.

Top Marginal Tax Rate Must Change

Let's compare our top marginal tax rate, and when it kicks in with a few of our regional competitors.

US 41.5% $395,000
Japan 50% $217,000
Singapore 22% $303,000
Hong Kong 16% $365,000

Australia 48.5% $62,500

(Source: The Australian 24th Feb 2004)

I'm moving to Hong Kong. I can see why we have a hard time getting professionals to come to Australia.

First Eastern States Reader

Goratrix (a.k.a. Killinz) has admitted to being a regular reader of the KingDom. He was quoted as being 'disappointed and near suicidal' that he had nothing to read on here yesterday.

This is too much pressure for the King, though I shall try and update more regularly for you.

Apologies.

S.A.S.

Well as predicted Shi-Ann goes home this week. The reward challenge was disgusting - especially the spider. Also Bucky swallowed that grub alive and whole, which isn't a pleasant thought. How you could fit it down your throat is beyond me. Fortunately your stomach acid would kill it fairly quickly.

Tom had to make a choice as to who to take on the reward challenge, and I think he made the right one. Rupert put him last (save for the going home girl) in the previous reward challenge, and after the leg-up performance from him and his wife I don't think that anyone could have enjoyed a night with them (shudder). Tom's comment about Shi-Ann making an alliance with a bush was quite funny.

Once again we saw the losing speech at tribal council (remember Kathy's one a few weeks ago). Shi-Ann said 'I'm voting for the person I think is playing the game' or something like that. What she was basically saying was 'I'm not voting for someone who is going to get voted off tonight, coz I know I'm going home'.

Predictions:
Well that leaves us with 5 - but in 3 groups. Rob & Amber, Jenna & Rupert, Big Tom.

Let's run through the possibilities. There are 3.

1) Rob & Amber go with Jenna & Rupert. Big Tom goes home next week. Result 4 people left and Amber is vulnerable because of the large number of votes she has on her. This doesn't sound like a smart play for Rob and Amber unless one of them wins the immunity and gives it to her - still risky though.

2) Rob & Amber go with Big Tom. This could result in Jenna or Rupert going home. It makes more sense for them to send Rupert home. He has the possibility of winning challenges, he is likely to attract votes. Jenna is not likely to do either. Strategically it is a good move, but maybe they just can't stand Jenna and want her gone.

3) Rupert & Jenna team up with Big Tom. While it's possible, I don't know. I think Rob is a handy guy to keep around for the final two. He's burned too many bridges already. There is also a lot of distrust between this group. Still Rupert might like to get rid of Tom so he can win the immunity challenges.

It's a hard call. Rob does not trust Big Tom, but it makes more sense for him to keep him around than Rupert and Jenna. I'll call Rupert going home next - but I don't have much confidence in this weeks pick.

Train Blast

Before and after photos of Ryongchon in North Korea. Very nasty.

Tax Cuts versus Social Services

I keep hearing about a recent survey over and over again. In this particular one > 50% of respondents agreed with the suggestion that they would prefer social spending over tax cuts. This is being trumpeted by the nanny-state regime very loudly at the moment as some sort of triumph / turning point for the Australian public.

I have 2 questions.

(1) How was the questioned framed?
(2) Do people respond differently when answering a survey as to when they are filling out a ballot?

It is well known that the way you frame a question influences the response you will get. I don't know the specifics of how this question was asked so I won't comment other than to raise it as a possible flag - if I can find a reference I will look. As for the second point, I think people tend to answer social questions in a positive way, but this does not necessarily translate to the way they vote. When it comes to voting time, everyone will pick the party which offers the biggest payout to them - admit it, you do to.

Let's be cynical. In the end the report matters for nothing. The Coalition are going to offer tax cuts, just like they did before the last election. Labor is not going to block them (it would be electoral suicide). This leaves a small pool of money for Labor to offer new initiatives with.

The Coalition target the 'aspirational voters (middle class movers)', 'conservatives', 'country voters', 'families' and the 'rich'.
Labor targets 'union people', 'families', the 'poor' and the 'loopy left (although how they manage to graft the nutters on is always a struggle)'.

I think the biggest issue is the 47% (really 48.5%) top marginal tax bracket, and how ridiculously early it kicks in. Compare that rate to other OECD countries and you'll be in for a big shock. Fortunately this is something that will come into the sights of the Coalition's electoral base, and I'm tipping some movement on this.

Someone once said of politics, "divide and take the biggest share". Sad but true.

When Chippies Appear

The roof carpenters finally showed up today, of course it just happened to be on a day when I was planning on sleeping in.

I found myself lying in bed unable to ignore the footsteps, and subconsciously working out exactly what was happening. They conveniently chose the spot above my bed to stack piles of tiles. I couldn't close my eyes without the recurring image of 10 stacked concrete tiles falling through the roof and landing on my head.

Hmm. Writing this has just reminded me of the fact I'm going to be sleeping under those stacks tonight. Nice one.

Car Update

My new front tires cost me $268. Ouch.

Oh you want me to comment on Mitsubishi?

Well, probably the most interesting thing was the discussion of what would happen to the fleet contracts. Being busy (or lazy, it's hard to tell these days) I might just wait for a transcript to be posted later this week and comment from that.

Regarding the new tires, the Tireman commented that I'd be back in 6 months for new ones. Err not likely buddy. What sort of driver does he think I look like?

Dom's Driving Tips of the Day
1) Under no circumstances should you leave a safe distance between you and the car in front of you no matter how fast you're going. If you do, the space will be filled in by somebody else putting you in an even more dangerous situation.

2) The faster you drive through a red light, the smaller the chance you have of getting hit.

Mitsubishi

Terry Lane tackles the Mitsubishi issue on The National Interest yesterday. Fascinating stuff, I must listen to the repeat at 6pm tonight. I'll let you know the highlights tomorrow

Chippies still MIA

Still no chippies at my house to work on the roof. The Bureau suggests we'll be having rain towards the end of this week. Yes, I am worried.