US Election Wrap

Bush is going to win.

Nothing more needs to be said. Kerry is a hopeless candidate, with his campaign exploding around him.

I guess they were right at the Republican convention.

"4 more years"

My interest in US politics now revolves around who the Democrats are going to pick in 2008. I hope it's Hillary. Hillary in 2008! I'm hoping it's not someone called Barak (which reminds me to much of a bear-man in the Belgariad - something I read when I was 10).

Perhaps Howard should have waited until after the US election in retrospect? I'm much less certain that he is going to be returned.

Latham v Costello

Latham's calling out Costello for a debate.

He wants it at a public forum, and I'm not sure this is something Costello will agree to.

I want to see this debate on T.V. In fact I'd pay money to see it.

Senate Look

I've been looking at the recent polls and the Senate.

I think the recent warnings from the Greens are a bit over the top. I don't think there is any real chance of the Conservatives gaining control of the upper house. I'm guessing there will be 33-35 Conservative senators after the election. If anything they might even lose ground on where they stand at the moment.

The other thing to consider is that a double dissolution would be a disaster for the Democrats. It's quite possible they will be wiped out if that were to occur. No incentive for this that I can see.

If the Conservatives have 36-38 seats after the election then it's a likelihood (DD). If they have 35 or less I don't see anything in it for Labor. I'm guessing they won't have enough seats.

I know the betting markets still have the Coalition favourites, but I have a funny feeling Labor my get in.

I'm not so sure.

I'm not so sure about a Coalition victory now. After reading the poll-bludgers guide something didn't add up. A very comprehensive guide to the seats, but the totals are completely out of date. I checked the count and he's tricking me into thinking he's predicting a Coalition victory, when he's actually predicting a Labor one. Update your count!

We may yet see a Labor win with a Coalition / Independent controlled upperhouse. That will lead to a double dissolution without a doubt. Double dissolutions favour the minor parties (lower threshold needed) so they have every incentive to be complicit in blocking supply.

I don't think it would necessarily happen early in the next term, but it would be almost certain to happen towards the end of it. Imagine all the triggers that could be ready to be voted on by a joint sitting.

Quite scary really. We haven't seen such momentous times since the 70's.

Money must be pouring in.

In the last 2 hours the odds have moved even further

Coalition $2.70
Labor $1.40

This is a strong positive move for Labor.

On a side note, why is it that the Labor party in Australia uses US spelling, while the Labour party in the UK does not? I don't know the answer, but personally I dislike US spelling in all its forms. I think Labor should rename themselves in celebration of victory if they defy the odds.

Labor Bounce

After recording the worst result since Latham took over the leadership, Labor's recovered slightly to

Coalition $1.33
Labor $3.00

There was a series of positive polls yesterday for Labor, and this seems to have carried through to the betting market. Whoever wins, the next parliamentary term will be interesting.

Oil supplies

According to the CIA world fact book Australia has enough proved oil reserves to fuel the entire world for only 48 days if current consumption continues.

Barrels used per day in the world: 75 million.
Australia's reserves: 3.664 billion

Are the CIA figures accurate?

If they are then we could continue operating on current levels of oil use for 13,521 days (37 years). Over time this will become more expensive to extract (easy pickings being used up).

Either we find new energy sources (I'm a big fan of renewables) or we find new oil deposits. Australia will use up its known sources in 14 years at the current rate.

New electoral information

The odds of Labor winning have dropped to their lowest level since 1st Dec 2003. This was when Latham took over the leadership from the hopeless Simon Crean. Latham performed well until his high point on the 14th June 2004, but has seen a steady fall since.

Labor is now back to where they started.

Source: Centrebet odds.

Senate information.
I know less about the Senate, but it does appear certain that the Coalition will improve their senate position from their existing 32 (I think it's 32) senators. The likely result is between 35 and 38 senators.

The interesting question is whether they will get up to 38 (which is half the senate). They would then be able to pass legislation with just 1 vote from an independent.

We're in for a dramatic next parliamentary term. If the Liberals win they will have a far easier time getting reforms through than they have ever had before.

If Labor wins it was argued tonight on Radio National's Australia Talks Back that we will be heading to a double dissolution. It was a convincing argument.

Either way dramatic.

Finally prepared to make the call

With the odds firming for a returned Howard victory:

Coalition: $1.28
Labor $3.30

I'm finally prepared to make this my call. So it's official, I believe the incumbents will be returned in the US and Australia.

Now my interest turns to the Senate. More research is required....