Bold Prediction

Ok, using my head on this one.

My prediction is an increased Coalition majority. 80 seats in the House and 37 seats in the Senate.

My heart tells me I should be worried though. Something very scary about forcing plebians to choose the fate of the country. Offering them free health care to be paid for by someone else, regardless of need or the ability to pay. Yes - I'm very scared.

I would hope I would have the moral conviction not to be thus bribed should I be the one being pork barreled.

Yes I'm scared of what might happen tomorrow

I've got a bad feeling that Medicare Old is a vote winner, even though it's bad policy.

This is the issue that decided my vote. This policy must be defeated.

You introduce it, and you'll never get rid of it.

I've never put my views out there before, but I feel so strongly on this issue that Labor must be defeated.

Rudd

Been listening to Philip Adams tonight. He's actually conducted a reasonable and relatively unbiased interview. Quite impressive really.

The subject of his questioning is Kevin Rudd, Rudd is someone that I like. Let's hope Latham loses on Saturday and opens an opportunity for Rudd to take over.

Put Rudd in charge and they might even be able to convert me to the darkside. He could make a great Prime-Minister. I respect the way he thinks before he talks.

(Put Julia in as deputy and I'm sold)

Feigned Outrage

A new poll is up on www.news.com.au

Will the conclusion of American weapons inspectors that Iraq effectively had no WMDs since 1991 affect how you vote on Saturday?

1489 50.27% No - I will still vote Coalition
870 29.37% No - I will still vote Labor
603 20.35% Yes - I will now switch my vote to Labor / the Greens

Assuming this is a reasonable cross section of the community - something approaching 20% of the survey respondants are liars. As the coalition never polls more than around 51% of the vote. These people have not made a 'switch'. Feigned outrage this is.

Can you truly believe online polls?

I went easy on him

There I was calling it a simple Cheney victory in the debate today over Edwards. Not a tough call. (I only listened on the radio, as in the Presidential debate, so I didn't get to see the body language)

Then on the way home from work I was astounded to hear the ABC call it a Cheney victory in the PM program. If the undeniably anti-bush ABC will call it a Cheney win, then I'm prepared to change my vote. Not just a simple win, but a spanking.

The only people calling it an Edwards victory appear to be the Rather unbiased people at CBS.

Vice Presidential Debate

Fascinating debate this morning. More interesting than the presidential debate.

My initial feeling was a win for Cheney. He's just a better performer and Edwards didn't score any blows.

I've checked out a few of the leftie blogs and they are calling it a draw. I guess that confirms a Cheney victory. (Lefties call this one a draw, people on the right call the presidential debate a draw).

So we'll assume most of the mainstream media will call it a draw. I'm betting many Republicans wish that Cheney could sub in for Bush in the next two presidential debates. All of those people who believe Cheney runs things anyway shouldn't object.

Blowout

Coalition $1.20
Labor $4

The odds have never looked this bad for Labor.
Probability of Coalition win > 71%

I see the AMA has come out against Medicare Old. I have to agree. Medicare Old has inspired me to anti-labor activism. I've never felt so strongly political before. The most important election I can remember.

Still 4 days to go, don't get your hopes up yet.

Coalition peaking at the right time

Coalition $1.25
Labor $3.50

Based on these odds, the markets believe there is a minimum 67% chance the Coalition will win.

Hmmm that still leaves a 1/3 chance of us heading down the European welfare state model.

This current Labor party is too Whitlamite for my liking. Bring back Kimbo, try out Rudd or even stick the lovely Julia in.

Dump Crean, dump him now.

Coalition bounce

Now the Coalition have increased their odds of winning:

Coalition $1.33
Labor $3.00

I've traditionally not cared too strongly one way or the other. I always liked Bomber Kim, and Keating was a classic (definitely undervalued). Yet the social welfare policies proposed this time by the Labor party (particularly Medicare Old and the University Fee reduction) overwhelm all other considerations (I do like some of their tax proposals though - can't have everything I guess).

They must be defeated at all costs. If Labor win maybe I'll join that guy that tried to row for Indonesia. I might just see him on his way back. Let's hope we can hold back age discrimination for one more period of government.

Don't vote with your heart, vote with your head. Think through the implications of the parties policies (By the way, compulsory voting is pathetic. It gives a voice to the stupid, the ignorant, the lazy and leads to a dumbing down of political debate).

Heading for Disaster

I don't often agree with Christian Kerr, but this time we seem to see eye to eye.

http://www.crikey.com.au/politics/2004/10/03-0004.html

Medicare Gold guarantees free, immediate health care for the over 75s.
Stuff you if you’re younger or sicker. This isn’t age before beauty. It’s age
before need. If you’re under 75 you’ll be dumped down the waiting list. Yes.
Even if you live in a marginal seat.

If you’re one of the 35 per cent or so of elderly Australians who have shelled out for private health insurance so you had quick access to medical treatment when you need it – and not all of these are silvertails, by any means – stuff you, too.

Howard may be on the nose, but looking at the platforms that the two parties are offering. If we choose Labor on Saturday this country is headed for disaster. The welfare state is going out of fashion fast (see what's happening in Europe at the moment - riots and protests as the governments cut back on the unaffordable).

Better a rat than a national disaster. Think about the policies, not the people.

Punters confused by the spin

Latest Odds

Coalition $1.45
Labor $2.55

Bush $1.45
Kerry $2.60

My call. The Australian election is on a knife edge. These figures don't do justice to how close it is.

The US election is all over. Kerry got a bounce from his debating skills, but he threw away what small chance he had with his talk of 'Passing the global test'. Self-immolation. It's now been shown that you can win a debate and lose an election simultaneously.