The Big Assertion

King Domitar is an economist, so hopefully I know what I'm talking about here for a change.

Quote: "Interest rates will always be higher under a Labor government than under a Coalition one"

You can NOT call this statement a lie because it is impossible to disprove.

A better criticism would be "An over-emphasised unproven assertion".

Historical evidence is clouded by the different economic conditions, but more importantly by the increasing globalisation of capital markets (which has moved tremendously in the last 20 years thanks to technology).

Everyone knows by now that governments only have a marginal effect on interest rates when compared to global market forces for capital. That does not mean they have no effect at the margin. They can create an environment where business invests rather than returning capital to their shareholders (which would put upward pressure on interest rates).

So the statement is not a lie.

It is an unproven assertion, you can accept it, you can choose not to, or you can argue your own case knowing you will never be able to prove your case either. You can't call it a lie.

Person 1 "God / Allah / Vishnu created the world"
Person 2 "You LIE!"

W.A. Senate Update

Turning to my home stats where the vote counted stands at 74.82%

Current quotas:

Labor 2 quotas

Liberals 3.9 quotas
Greens 1.1 quotas

In an electorate of 1,237,349 people the conservatives look like falling 10,000 votes short of picking up a 4th seat. That's amazingly close and shows the scope of the conservative victory in the west.

It's also worth noting that the arguably deceptively named Liberals for Forests picked up almost 4,000 votes and sent them to the Greens.

If I find some time tomorrow afternoon I'll have a look at the Queensland senate race. It sounds like the Coalition look like winning 4 of the 6 seats in that state. This will give them a clear majority in the Senate without needing any votes from Family First.

I heard today (from someone in the know) that the reason Family First polled so badly in W.A. (only 0.78%) was because of their preference deal where they put the 'anti-Christian' Democrats ahead of the Liberal party. Apparently the word on the Christian street last week was to vote CDP (1.9% of the primary vote).

If this is true, then what I don't understand is why Family First outpolled the CDP convincingly in most of the other states where they made the same deal.

Victorian Christian voters presumably in retrospect think it was a good deal. Without the votes of the Democrats they would have been behind Labor and not been able to use Labor preferences to win the seat.

Victorian Senate Analysis

How the ALP gave away control of the senate...

Here is a look at the Senate race in Victoria.
The Libs take 3 seats, Labor 2, with the last seat up for grabs.

Assumptions:

• Everyone votes above the line (using the group voting tickets)
• Current trends continue in the postal votes
• Ignoring an insignificant 0.0101 quotas from a couple of independents

The final 5 parties are (in order):

1) The Greens (0.6675 quotas)
2) ALP (0.5936 quotas)
3) Family First (0.3697 quotas)
4) DLP - Democratic Labor Party (0.2132 quotas)
5) Democrats (0.1457 quotas)

The Democrats are eliminated and their quota is redistributed to the top surviving party on their group voting ticket. They had also collected Group S independents who similarly get redistributed.

• Democrat preferences go to Family First (0.1297 quotas).
• Group S independents go to the Greens (0.016 quotas).
  

New Standings:
1) The Greens (0.6835 quotas)
2) ALP (0.5936 quotas)
3) Family First (0.4994 quotas)
4) DLP - Democratic Labor Party (0.2132 quotas)

The DLP is eliminated and their quota is redistributed. They had picked up the Libs / Nationals.

• DLP preferences go to Family First (0.1297 quotas)
• Liberal / National preferences go to Family First (0.0835 quotas)
  

New Standings:
1) Family First (0.7126 quotas)
2) The Greens (0.6835 quotas)
3) ALP (0.5936 quotas)

The ALP is eliminated and their quota is redistributed.

They had picked up the Ex-Service, Service & Veterans Party.

• ALP preferences go to Family First (0.5701 quotas)
• Ex-Service, Service & Veterans Party preferences go to Family First (0.0235 quotas)

Final Standings:
1) Family First (1.3062 quotas)
2) The Greens (0.6835 quotas)

Without both the Democrats and the DLP combined Family First would have been sitting in 3rd place with three to go and eliminated.

It was ALP preferences that decided the final result.

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2004/guide/gtv_vic_i_10.htm

They put Family First ahead of the Greens. If they had of reversed the order then the conservatives would not have control of the Senate.

Who ended up sending their preferences to Family First:

CDP Christian Party
Liberal/Nationals
One Nation
Liberals for forests
Non-Custodial Parents Party
Ex-Service, Service & Veterans Party
The Aged and Disability Pensioners Party
The Progressives (Meg Lees)
Democrats
DLP - Democratic Labor Party
Australian Labor Party

They needed the preferences of all of the last 3 parties to get in.

Family First get a whopping 0.57 of a quota from ALP voters. It's also worth pointing out that the Greens preferenced the ALP above Family First. They put Steve Fielding #55. The ALP didn't return the favour (Steve Fielding #8).

Too clever by half?

Some Quick Calculations

I did some quick calculations on the Senate race in W.A.

312,000 votes still to count.

A 1% swing towards the conservative parties (combined) with give the liberals a 4th seat in WA!

Unlikely though I guess. On current trends they will end up around 10,000 votes short of a 4th seat. The Greens will then take the seat.

How did I go?

I'm quite happy with my predictive abilities.

Still waiting for a couple of undecided seats, but as predicted here the Coalition did increase their majority.

I'll have something to say about the attitude of people on the left tomorrow, but here is my general opinion:

Frankly their attitude is a turnoff. I hate to tell them this (they might learn something and correct the error) but their failure to accept defeat graciously will ensure another conservative victory at the next election.

They may profess wisdom, but they certainly haven't learnt anything. Demeaning the informed choices of many of us as effectively falling for the Coalition's lies does not engender future support.

Note: I made my choice based on the health care policies of the two parties. The Coalition's was better.

Victory

As I walked to the local polling booth yesterday with my eldest son I came across the posters adorning the walls of the school.

"Vote Labor - Free Health Care to over 75"

I had a feeling of dread. Could we be so bought?

The only worker who even tried to hand me an election pamphlet was a Green, who I politely declined. Most people accept all they are offered, but I could not so demean myself.

Once inside I calmly filled out my vote then spent a bit of time looking around. Every single elderly person in the room had a how to vote Liberal card. I then realised the folly of Labor's plan. I'm guessing once you've voted one way all your life it is too late to change, no matter the bribe.

(I know they were really targeting the soon to retire baby boomers, but 75 is still a long way off for them).

Feeling better I returned home, via the school playground equipment for my son. He enjoyed his first taste of democracy in action.